#133: Padraig Carmody / Geography / Globalization / Venezuela / China / Africa & Somalia / BRICS

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Welcome to another episode of
Come Together.

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Paul and yeah, an oil rig.
Paul Rig, there we go.

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Paul Rig, Professor, welcome.
So happy to have you here.

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Happy New Year and happy 2026,
isn't it?

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Correctly returns, yeah.
And you have your returns.

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Yeah, well, I got my punt of
Guinness and I'm ready for a lot

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of fun and hopefully a very
educational conversation about

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geography.
So I've been.

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So I got interested in this
whole topic of, aside from

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geography, economic
relationships, you know, between

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between countries and using
economics to kind of expand

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empires.
I became familiar with this

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notion when I was reading a book
called The Confessions of an

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Economic Hitman.
And I actually interviewed the

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author, who is really a
wonderful man.

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And, and then he told me after I
interviewed him about his first

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book, he's like, you know, I
actually wrote two more books

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since.
And one of them is specifically

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about how China is so much
better at this game today than

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America is at this point in
time.

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And I started looking into where
China was investing and I

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noticed that a lot of it was in
Africa and South America.

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And I so, so that kind of what
is what prompted me to, to reach

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out and to start, you know,
doing some homework into

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geography and some of this
history and some of the impact

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that it leads to today.
So that's why we're here today.

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Right.
Sounds good.

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So yeah.
Please tell me about whatever

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comes to mind.
So I suppose, you know, we're

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we're living in a world now
where we have two super powers,

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you know, for the first time in
a long time since the collapse

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of the Soviet bloc.
China, I think by most measures

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is a superpower now.
And that means that, you know,

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it takes an interest in all
world regions.

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So Africa, Latin America are
very important in terms of

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resources.
We can relate that to what's

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been happening in Venezuela as
well.

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I would love in the last few
days and you know the the scale

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of investment in Europe is is
quite substantial.

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Oh really?
Yeah, so.

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In America near near near the
military bases and farm lands

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and stuff like that, right?
Yeah.

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Well, I mean, there's obviously
there's Chinese investment.

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The Americans have been more
restrictive historically.

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So there was a case where there
was an oil company, Unocal, I

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think it was in 2005, and a
Chinese company wanted to buy

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that out and that was blocked on
national security grounds.

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So even back 20 plus years ago,
you know that there was

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awareness and tension around
those kinds of issues.

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The Europeans have played a more
kind of straddling role, but but

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total Chinese investment in
Africa apparently is equivalent

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to, uh, Chinese investment in
Germany.

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So even it's because African
economies are generally so small

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that China's footprint seems
kind of oversized there, whereas

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it's not as noticeable in some
of the bigger economies like the

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UK, you know, Germany or France,
you know, but, but they are

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really strategically important
for natural resources.

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And that's becoming a key kind
of area of what some people

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refer to as the new Cold War
between between the US and

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China.
And some people say Africa is a

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key battleground in that.
I mean, we can talk if you like,

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more about that.
But but to to come back to your

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point about China being better
at kind of present projecting

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and exerting power in other
parts of the world, I think

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that's largely true.
And I think the reason for that

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is because the Chinese Communist
Party is able to control and

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coordinate the society, state
owned corporations, state owned

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banks, It has all of these kind
of vectors of power that are

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integrated into a loose kind of
ecosystem, which then can be

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externalized in order to
generate both economic and

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political benefits for China.
And and the two often go hand in

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hand.
Sometimes there are

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contradictions between them.
So, you know, China gave out a

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lot of loans to fund
infrastructure around the world.

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Many of those projects haven't
worked.

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You know, populations have
pushed back.

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There have been debt defaults.
So sometimes there's a

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contradiction between the
economic kind of objectives and

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the the political outcomes.
But for a lot of the time it

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works.
The two kind of work hand in

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hand.
Right, Awesome, awesome.

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So there are a bunch of I mean,
you said a whole lot.

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That last thing I want to go
back to that we could unpack.

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But the thing that immediately
jumps to mind to respond would

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be from my understanding that
China has part of the reason why

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China has been so successful in
recent years or the last couple

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of decades, say at this
investment and influential

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strategy is I think because the
US for many, many years has kind

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of overplayed their hand in
aggression in, in the loans and

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in the, and also the way that
they kind of come to collect the

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loans in the sense that they
say, Hey, we're going to build a

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military base here or hey, we're
going to overthrow your, you

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know, and, and it's become a lot
less subtle over time.

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And I think that, you know, it
started off as a much more in

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the shadows.
And I think we became a lot more

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self confident and perhaps to a
detriment.

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And I think a lot of people
started becoming very resentful

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of the United States.
And that's where China is almost

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welcoming because.
And again with the with the long

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term potential of a of a
strategy without elections every

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four years and you can really
implement the strategy over 20

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years without ever worrying.
And like you say, you have the

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corporations and the private
sector all lumped in.

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It gives China opportunity to
come to anyone that feels that

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they were slighted or worse by
the US and say, Hey, I promise

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we're not going to do that to
you.

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We've always been subtle.
We don't build military bases

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like that.
We don't put, you know, send

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troops all over the place or
kidnap presidents in the middle

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of the night.
So, you know, I so why don't you

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guys work with us instead?
And then, you know, obviously

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that comes with their own set of
cons like you mentioned.

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But I think that I think that
our own Americans, America's own

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self assuredness kind of shot
itself in the foot.

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So, you know, there are
different theories about how

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so-called great powers or
empires, if you want to put it

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in that term.
People dispute whether the US is

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an imperial state or, or whether
it's hegemonic or was hegemonic

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or but anyway, very powerful big
states like the US and China

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there, you know, there's kind of
theories about when they become

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globally dominant, they tend to
have to invest militarily in

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security, in institutions to try
and preserve their kind of

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global positioning.
And so there's this idea of

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imperial overreach.
So the, the British, some people

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claim, you know, did that in the
19th century where, you know, in

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Africa, for example, they were
interested in colonizing as much

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of it as they could,
irrespective of whether it was

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an economic proposition for
them.

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But for geostrategic reasons to
prevent the French getting it

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to, you know, project power and
prestige and, and all of those

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kinds of reasons.
So there's a certain hubris that

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may build up.
And I think that's kind of what

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you're getting at, that we're #1
nobody's going to be able to

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touch us in the future.
This was the way it was meant to

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be.
You know, in the US, obviously,

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there was the, the Monroe
Doctrine, which is now being

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revived, that the US would be
the only real power in the

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Western Hemisphere, Manifest
destiny that, you know, the US

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would be able to expand across
the North American and much of

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the North American continent.
And that was the destiny of the

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nation to fulfill that.
So that kind of expansionist

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culture philosophy, uh, we can
see kind of being resurrected in

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some of the kind of moves that
are, that are being made

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currently.
But, umm, I think what's

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happening, you know, the, the US
national security strategy was

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released a few weeks ago, OK,
the new, the new Trump 1.

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And it was an interesting
document, umm, because basically

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it, uh, talked about the Monroe
Doctrine and the Trump

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corollary.
And some people said this was

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the US trying to carve out a
sphere of influence in the

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Western Hemisphere and assert
it's kind of dominance or

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ownership of that region.
Other people, though, and then

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to leave Asia for the Chinese
and Europe for the Russians.

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You know, this idea of kind of
spheres of influence.

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But I read it a little bit
differently.

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I think that the Trump
administration isn't giving up

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on American dominance or
primacy, but what it wants to do

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is to actually leverage the kind
of geographical advantages on

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resource endowments of South
America in order to assert or

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reassert global US dominance.
So I've been reading about for,

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you know, Venezuela contains 17%
or 20% of the world's oil known

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oil reserves.
And so if you, if there is a

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scenario where China is not able
to access Venezuelan oil, the US

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has now sanctioned Russian oil
companies, Rosneft and others.

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So that means I was reading an
article earlier today saying,

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you know, that 70% potentially
of Chinese oil imports would

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then be controlled by
governments that are favourable

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to the United States.
So China wouldn't be able to

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invade Taiwan because the US
could constrict it's oil supply.

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So there's a, there's a, a
different geostrategy I think at

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play in this national security
strategy.

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Yeah, yeah.
It was actually, it's so great

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that you bring that up because I
was actually initially opposed

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to the whole Venezuela
involvement, you know, and, and

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perhaps it was a little
nearsighted of me or short

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sighted.
And I, I do have that problem

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sometimes or I have, I'm the
first to admit that I don't have

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that big picture perspective a
lot of time.

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So I have a harder time with
that.

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But I thought, listen, if this
was about drugs, Mexico is a

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much bigger problem as far as US
concerned.

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Even even the northern border by
Canada is a much bigger problem.

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And, and you know, if we're
going to start there and then it

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turns and and then, and then
someone made the argument to me

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that China and Russia do buy an
enormous amount of their oil

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from Venezuela.
And if you can, and if and if

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America could accomplish this
mission without damaging any,

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without any lives given first of
all, which is the priority, and

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without.
American lives, well, I think

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there were people killed, but
really?

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In Venezuela.
Yeah, I, I saw some reporting

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that there were people killed in
Venezuela.

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There were no American service
people killed and obviously no

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aircraft lost.
But I think there were

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Venezuelans killed, yeah.
In the, I have a buddy of mine

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that does business, he does
seafood and vegetables import

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and export into South Florida
and he goes to Venezuela a lot.

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He actually said that something
happened, his factory burned

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down or something like that.
He said he was right around that

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whole, the whole area.
But from my, my understanding,

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so you know, minimal, I suppose
relatively minimal sacrifice as

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far as a war goes or as far as a
change in opposition, A regime

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change goes.
And it seems I, I mean, I hope

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that that's it.
I don't, I don't know, but I

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hope that that's it, you know,
but but the problem also is, and

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again, America has, I mean, I
always like to kind of flip the

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script and just say, what would
we do if we're in someone else's

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shoes or someone else is doing,
if someone else is doing this to

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us, how would we respond if
someone did something that

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really damaged the potential for
us to get access to up to 20% of

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the like the world's oil?
I would consider that, I'm sure

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America would consider that an
act of violence in some kind of

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way, shape or form.
And that would encourage some

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kind of warfare, whether it's,
it might not necessarily mean

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boots on the ground, but it
could mean some kind of, you

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know, propaganda warfare or spy
warfare or political warfare or,

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you know, soft influence
warfare.

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And, and, and I'm sure that that
that we're kind of inviting that

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kind of attack from everyone
that we're upsetting by shaking

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this up.
Yeah.

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So I mean, I think there's a few
issues around that.

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And obviously resources in
Africa are central as well,

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particularly rare earths,
so-called critical minerals.

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We can, we can talk more about
that if you like, but I think,

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you know, it's, it's a gamble
and the consequences are

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00:14:15,200 --> 00:14:18,360
unknown.
And some people have been

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00:14:18,360 --> 00:14:22,760
saying, you know, that, you
know, even even if it seems

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00:14:23,400 --> 00:14:25,160
there's, you know, the
difference between a kind of

229
00:14:25,160 --> 00:14:27,920
tactical action and something
which is strategic.

230
00:14:27,920 --> 00:14:31,040
Even from an American
self-interest kind of point of

231
00:14:31,040 --> 00:14:35,480
view, something which may may
seem kind of tactically, you

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00:14:35,480 --> 00:14:40,400
know, well executed or or well
conceived strategically if it

233
00:14:40,400 --> 00:14:44,680
undermines international law, if
it that undermines soft power,

234
00:14:44,680 --> 00:14:47,600
the kinds of things you were
talking about influence more

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00:14:47,600 --> 00:14:51,080
broadly, and that's.
Incident too, exactly that we

236
00:14:51,080 --> 00:14:54,840
don't want to necessarily be
applied, you know, to us.

237
00:14:55,200 --> 00:14:58,680
Yeah, yeah, exactly.
So you know, the old adage,

238
00:14:58,680 --> 00:15:02,400
violence begets violence.
Unfortunately, I think that that

239
00:15:02,400 --> 00:15:04,800
still holds true.
The other, the other question,

240
00:15:04,800 --> 00:15:09,760
of course, is about to what
extent the Venezuelan government

241
00:15:09,840 --> 00:15:14,160
under the newly installed
interim president will actually

242
00:15:14,480 --> 00:15:20,040
do US bidding or, you know, how
will they balance, uh, with the

243
00:15:20,040 --> 00:15:24,520
demands of political power
brokers and, you know, power

244
00:15:24,520 --> 00:15:27,640
holders in Venezuela.
So that's all still up in the

245
00:15:27,640 --> 00:15:30,240
air.
Again, some people, Adam Tooze

246
00:15:30,240 --> 00:15:33,480
apparently had a peace from
Columbia University where he

247
00:15:33,480 --> 00:15:37,240
said this was imperial cosplay.
So basically, rather than having

248
00:15:37,240 --> 00:15:40,960
a big ground invasion force like
Iraq, you know, you send in this

249
00:15:40,960 --> 00:15:44,520
kind of Delta Force special
operators.

250
00:15:45,000 --> 00:15:46,560
It's a very quick, quick
operation.

251
00:15:46,560 --> 00:15:48,280
They're in and out in a couple
of hours.

252
00:15:48,520 --> 00:15:52,280
And it appears it's it's been a
major achievement or operation.

253
00:15:52,280 --> 00:15:56,440
But in actuality, you've you've
let off some bombs, you've

254
00:15:56,440 --> 00:15:59,160
kidnapped someone.
But in reality, maybe not much

255
00:15:59,160 --> 00:16:01,440
has really changed.
Yeah, yeah.

256
00:16:01,440 --> 00:16:03,760
And I guess we'll have to see.
I guess we'll have to see.

257
00:16:04,040 --> 00:16:07,120
I think that it's just a matter
of taking our time and letting

258
00:16:07,200 --> 00:16:09,720
letting the situation breathe a
little bit because we all know

259
00:16:09,720 --> 00:16:13,240
that, you know, the risks of
celebrating a little too early

260
00:16:13,240 --> 00:16:16,560
is, you know, especially
combined with typical American

261
00:16:16,560 --> 00:16:19,920
arrogance might be it might be a
dangerous combination.

262
00:16:21,240 --> 00:16:24,080
I would love to.
So I want to talk to you about a

263
00:16:24,080 --> 00:16:26,960
bunch of fun topics that I think
are important for people to

264
00:16:26,960 --> 00:16:29,800
learn about or at least to be
aware of these concepts.

265
00:16:30,080 --> 00:16:33,120
Because I think that a lot of
these concepts exist

266
00:16:33,120 --> 00:16:38,120
objectively.
And then fun and sometimes crazy

267
00:16:38,120 --> 00:16:41,600
conspiracy theorists get hold of
them and kind of twist

268
00:16:42,000 --> 00:16:45,400
everything on its head.
And unfortunately, they actually

269
00:16:45,400 --> 00:16:49,440
end up ruining the, the, the
truth that is at the root of a

270
00:16:49,440 --> 00:16:51,680
lot of conspiracy theories.
You know, everything the best

271
00:16:51,680 --> 00:16:54,480
lie has, has, has, has a bunch
of truth to it.

272
00:16:54,480 --> 00:16:57,840
And you kind of just change, you
know, the, the, the inconvenient

273
00:16:57,840 --> 00:16:59,800
aspects of it for, for your
bidding.

274
00:17:01,280 --> 00:17:04,560
You teach and, and, and, and,
and, and study globalization.

275
00:17:04,560 --> 00:17:07,400
I took a couple of classes about
that in college when I was, when

276
00:17:07,720 --> 00:17:14,560
I was back in 2015, 2016, 2017,
and I at the time and I didn't

277
00:17:14,560 --> 00:17:17,119
understand what it was at the
time and I kind of understand a

278
00:17:17,119 --> 00:17:19,960
lot more today of what that
looks like.

279
00:17:19,960 --> 00:17:22,280
Can you explain what the concept
of globalization is and the

280
00:17:22,280 --> 00:17:26,480
potential pros and cons of of a
globalized world as opposed to

281
00:17:26,480 --> 00:17:27,720
the world you've been living in
a toenail?

282
00:17:28,480 --> 00:17:33,440
OK, so you know, there's
different definitions of

283
00:17:33,440 --> 00:17:38,200
globalization as it's most
basic, it's increased

284
00:17:38,240 --> 00:17:43,120
interconnection between places.
So through trade, investment,

285
00:17:43,120 --> 00:17:46,400
flows of ideas, people.
So there's a variety of

286
00:17:46,400 --> 00:17:50,600
different vectors.
Umm, there's different types of

287
00:17:50,600 --> 00:17:53,520
globalization.
Umm, so you know, we could think

288
00:17:53,520 --> 00:17:56,600
of the slave, the transatlantic
slave trade as a form of

289
00:17:56,600 --> 00:18:00,760
globalization or French
colonialism in Africa or or

290
00:18:01,240 --> 00:18:04,160
Indochina as a form of
globalization.

291
00:18:04,680 --> 00:18:10,320
But people have written and
talked a lot about neoliberal

292
00:18:10,320 --> 00:18:14,000
globalization, the kind of
spread of free markets, free

293
00:18:14,000 --> 00:18:19,680
market ideology, privatisation
across the world starting from

294
00:18:19,680 --> 00:18:26,240
the late 1970s through to, well,
probably the global financial

295
00:18:26,240 --> 00:18:29,520
crisis really is, is the high
watermark for that.

296
00:18:31,000 --> 00:18:37,320
But globalization is, you know,
if we're thinking about

297
00:18:37,320 --> 00:18:41,400
neoliberal globalization, it was
very much focused on kind of

298
00:18:41,400 --> 00:18:47,240
profitability and extending this
social logic of profitability

299
00:18:47,240 --> 00:18:51,560
across the globe into
healthcare, into water, into

300
00:18:51,560 --> 00:18:55,640
basic, you know, lots of things
that could be commodified.

301
00:18:56,880 --> 00:19:02,480
We're now seeing that that model
of globalization generated these

302
00:19:02,600 --> 00:19:09,400
huge inequalities that is
hollowed out the European and

303
00:19:09,400 --> 00:19:13,720
American manufacturing bases
along with automation and and,

304
00:19:14,160 --> 00:19:18,040
you know, other developments.
And that that has generated this

305
00:19:18,040 --> 00:19:22,400
political backlash against that
kind of globalism as it as it

306
00:19:22,400 --> 00:19:23,960
has been called.
Yeah.

307
00:19:23,960 --> 00:19:29,760
And then we're seeing then, you
know, the use of tariffs, more

308
00:19:29,760 --> 00:19:34,120
industrial policies, even the
American government taking

309
00:19:34,120 --> 00:19:39,480
ownership stakes of companies
like Intel or charging NVIDIA to

310
00:19:39,480 --> 00:19:43,680
sell microchips to to China,
getting a slice of that.

311
00:19:44,560 --> 00:19:48,920
So that we've seen this
resurgence of what some people

312
00:19:48,920 --> 00:19:52,240
refer to as state capitalism.
But that doesn't mean that

313
00:19:52,240 --> 00:19:54,880
globalisation is dead.
If, if we you look at the

314
00:19:54,880 --> 00:20:00,400
statistics, global trade still
grew even under Trump's, you

315
00:20:00,400 --> 00:20:02,480
know, first year in office,
global trade.

316
00:20:03,120 --> 00:20:07,960
And part of that is because
globalization is what social

317
00:20:07,960 --> 00:20:11,360
scientists refer to as a
recursive phenomenon.

318
00:20:11,680 --> 00:20:16,440
So if I sell you, you're in
Florida, I send you.

319
00:20:17,880 --> 00:20:22,720
A packet of coffee in the mail
and then you send me money, you

320
00:20:22,720 --> 00:20:25,920
know, in exchange for that.
So one flow has generated the

321
00:20:25,920 --> 00:20:28,200
other flow.
But I then take that money and

322
00:20:28,200 --> 00:20:31,680
maybe I buy something from China
with it and then the money moves

323
00:20:31,680 --> 00:20:35,200
on from there and it sets off
all of these other flows.

324
00:20:35,520 --> 00:20:41,720
So it it, it, it has this kind
of dynamism or kind of feeding

325
00:20:41,720 --> 00:20:45,360
back and amplifying itself as
one flow sets off another flow.

326
00:20:45,800 --> 00:20:50,040
And then you have kind of
negative impacts, positive

327
00:20:50,040 --> 00:20:54,280
impacts, you have pushback,
blowback, depending on the, the

328
00:20:54,480 --> 00:20:59,120
particular geographic context
and the types of flows and the

329
00:20:59,120 --> 00:21:01,400
power relations driving those
flows.

330
00:21:01,880 --> 00:21:08,200
So that's why globalization is a
deeply embedded phenomenon in

331
00:21:08,200 --> 00:21:13,840
market economy or economies.
It's not going away, but people

332
00:21:13,840 --> 00:21:17,440
talk about slobalization, you
know, maybe it's slowing down.

333
00:21:17,720 --> 00:21:20,240
You, you, you know.
So it's, it's an interesting

334
00:21:20,240 --> 00:21:22,840
phenomenon to study.
Yeah, it is.

335
00:21:23,000 --> 00:21:26,640
And it feels, I mean, I can't
imagine that it is slowing down

336
00:21:26,640 --> 00:21:29,560
because of how everyone is
constantly minding everyone

337
00:21:29,560 --> 00:21:32,280
else's business and acting as if
everyone else's actions are

338
00:21:32,280 --> 00:21:35,200
extensions of their own.
And, you know, and for better or

339
00:21:35,200 --> 00:21:37,840
for worse, you know, 1 country
or, or, or, or the next.

340
00:21:37,840 --> 00:21:42,040
And, you know, when you have all
these and, and, and I mean this,

341
00:21:42,040 --> 00:21:45,880
I guess, I mean, I, I, perhaps
you can argue, and I don't know

342
00:21:45,880 --> 00:21:48,920
what you think of this, that the
World War, I mean, starting with

343
00:21:48,920 --> 00:21:54,360
World War One is kind of the
first case of mass globalization

344
00:21:54,360 --> 00:21:57,600
in a very negative way, in the
sense that everyone kind of got

345
00:21:57,600 --> 00:21:59,080
involved in everyone else's
business.

346
00:21:59,400 --> 00:22:03,120
And a lot of people don't even
know why World War One, sorry,

347
00:22:03,160 --> 00:22:07,000
you could say, started as an
assassination, but why the

348
00:22:07,000 --> 00:22:10,920
entire world got involved and,
you know, and why it came to an

349
00:22:10,920 --> 00:22:15,480
end is, is, you know, equally,
it almost feels like there was

350
00:22:15,480 --> 00:22:19,680
an explosion of potential in
terms of trade and technology

351
00:22:20,000 --> 00:22:22,800
and we didn't quite know.
And that and that naturally,

352
00:22:22,800 --> 00:22:25,120
when you get when you obviously
get people involved in that, you

353
00:22:25,120 --> 00:22:27,800
get humanity for the for better
or for worse, involved in that

354
00:22:27,800 --> 00:22:30,880
as well.
And you start to apply these

355
00:22:30,880 --> 00:22:35,640
human traits that have been very
useful in or very or manageable

356
00:22:35,640 --> 00:22:39,200
in small communities or cities,
and you apply them to countries

357
00:22:39,200 --> 00:22:42,520
at a time or hemispheres at a
time, and that changes

358
00:22:42,560 --> 00:22:43,800
everything.
Yeah.

359
00:22:44,440 --> 00:22:48,320
So I mean, I'm, I'm not a a
specialist on European history

360
00:22:48,320 --> 00:22:51,680
or, or, or World War, but
obviously people are talking

361
00:22:51,680 --> 00:22:55,720
about the potential for global
conflict to break out again.

362
00:22:56,080 --> 00:22:58,080
Yeah.
We see that there isn't a, you

363
00:22:58,080 --> 00:23:02,320
know, dramatic uptick in
conflict currently around the

364
00:23:02,320 --> 00:23:05,880
world from Ukraine to Sudan to
many other places.

365
00:23:06,840 --> 00:23:09,960
So we're in that.
We're in an era where there are

366
00:23:09,960 --> 00:23:14,320
parallels with previous areas.
And I think what you were

367
00:23:14,320 --> 00:23:21,240
talking about there about how
power becomes in this global

368
00:23:21,800 --> 00:23:25,040
political and economic system
that we have very, very

369
00:23:25,040 --> 00:23:27,400
concentrated in particular
countries.

370
00:23:27,800 --> 00:23:33,240
So the US, China, you know, some
others are more marginal

371
00:23:33,240 --> 00:23:35,080
players, but they're the they're
the big ones.

372
00:23:36,280 --> 00:23:40,840
And the Europeans have economic
power, but maybe not.

373
00:23:40,840 --> 00:23:43,200
A lot you can do the a
superpower in that way.

374
00:23:44,360 --> 00:23:47,080
I don't think Russia is a
superpower, no.

375
00:23:47,120 --> 00:23:52,880
No, I think it's a superpower in
terms on one axis or vector,

376
00:23:52,880 --> 00:23:56,720
which is the amount of nuclear
weapons it has.

377
00:23:57,280 --> 00:23:59,560
That makes a.
That makes a strong statement.

378
00:24:01,520 --> 00:24:06,080
So, but you know, Vladimir Putin
used to talk about the Russia

379
00:24:06,080 --> 00:24:10,240
being an energy superpower, but
oil prices are quite low.

380
00:24:10,600 --> 00:24:14,560
Maybe, you know, the US
intervention, if that was to

381
00:24:14,560 --> 00:24:19,040
drive oil prices down further,
apparently, you know, below $50

382
00:24:19,040 --> 00:24:24,760
a barrel, that would really have
very negative consequences for

383
00:24:24,760 --> 00:24:29,040
the Russian economy and their
ability to fund the war, all of

384
00:24:29,120 --> 00:24:32,160
all of those kinds of things.
But the Russian economy is about

385
00:24:32,160 --> 00:24:35,680
the same size as the Spanish
economy or the Australian

386
00:24:35,680 --> 00:24:36,720
economy.
Really.

387
00:24:37,160 --> 00:24:41,400
Yeah.
So it it's a very small, I think

388
00:24:41,400 --> 00:24:44,120
is it the depending on how you
measure it.

389
00:24:44,400 --> 00:24:48,160
So if you measure it in U.S.
dollars, I think it's something

390
00:24:48,160 --> 00:24:51,320
like the 13th biggest economy in
the world.

391
00:24:51,640 --> 00:24:55,320
But if you measure it as what
economists call purchasing power

392
00:24:55,320 --> 00:25:00,240
parity, which is what, you know,
rubles will buy you in Russia

393
00:25:00,240 --> 00:25:03,600
versus dollars in the US.
But what's put the the money

394
00:25:03,600 --> 00:25:06,360
people have in their pockets
when they spend it locally, I

395
00:25:06,360 --> 00:25:08,200
think it's the fourth biggest in
the world.

396
00:25:08,560 --> 00:25:12,480
But if you're thinking about
international weight of the the

397
00:25:12,480 --> 00:25:16,240
international weight of the
economy, Russia is is small.

398
00:25:16,520 --> 00:25:20,240
And some people have argued that
the war in Ukraine is partly an

399
00:25:20,240 --> 00:25:24,400
attempt to and the Russians have
kind of talked about this in

400
00:25:24,400 --> 00:25:27,360
their own F foreign policy
statements and doctrine that

401
00:25:27,360 --> 00:25:32,040
they want to make Russia a poll
in the new global order and

402
00:25:32,040 --> 00:25:36,000
obviously getting access to
Ukrainian resources, rare

403
00:25:36,000 --> 00:25:40,520
earths, you know, and so on.
It would be potentially part of

404
00:25:40,520 --> 00:25:42,040
that.
You know, now there's all sorts

405
00:25:42,040 --> 00:25:45,760
of political reasons for the the
Russian invasion of Ukraine as

406
00:25:45,760 --> 00:25:48,720
well.
Sure, but but there's also an

407
00:25:48,720 --> 00:25:51,400
economic aspect or dimension to
it.

408
00:25:51,400 --> 00:25:53,760
I think so.
Yeah, you always follow the

409
00:25:53,760 --> 00:25:55,840
money.
You always follow that money.

410
00:25:56,200 --> 00:25:59,120
Sure.
And also people's ability to

411
00:25:59,120 --> 00:26:03,440
stay in power, you know?
And so, yeah, that's important

412
00:26:03,440 --> 00:26:04,280
too.
Yeah, yeah.

413
00:26:04,280 --> 00:26:07,360
People that have that get power
never give it up willingly and

414
00:26:07,360 --> 00:26:08,760
certainly.
Yeah.

415
00:26:08,960 --> 00:26:11,200
So pretty crappy part of the
human condition, I suppose.

416
00:26:12,800 --> 00:26:13,720
Yeah.
Please.

417
00:26:13,880 --> 00:26:15,720
Are you about to say something?
No.

418
00:26:15,720 --> 00:26:19,840
So I, I think, you know, when
you have that power

419
00:26:19,840 --> 00:26:25,720
concentration in particular
countries and if governments

420
00:26:25,720 --> 00:26:30,800
feel that the maintenance of
their power is dependent on

421
00:26:30,800 --> 00:26:36,040
competing or even going to war
with other countries, Plus you

422
00:26:36,040 --> 00:26:39,440
never know what other countries
are, are thinking necessarily.

423
00:26:39,600 --> 00:26:43,280
I mean, one of the functions of
diplomacy is to try and convey

424
00:26:43,760 --> 00:26:47,200
and to reassure, you know, that
countries don't have aggressive

425
00:26:47,200 --> 00:26:50,760
intentions or, or whatever.
But you could see, for example,

426
00:26:50,760 --> 00:26:53,520
the Russian and and Chinese
governments were obviously very

427
00:26:53,760 --> 00:26:56,880
surprised at the intervention,
the US intervention in

428
00:26:56,880 --> 00:27:00,640
Venezuela, that they didn't have
any foreknowledge, even though

429
00:27:00,640 --> 00:27:03,480
there was a big military buildup
and everybody knew something was

430
00:27:03,480 --> 00:27:06,560
coming.
So you, you, you, this people

431
00:27:06,560 --> 00:27:11,320
talk about the security dilemma,
which is basically you, you

432
00:27:11,320 --> 00:27:13,640
never know what another
country's government's

433
00:27:14,120 --> 00:27:18,680
intentions are fully.
And so you have to take a kind

434
00:27:18,680 --> 00:27:21,400
of default position that you
have to build up your own

435
00:27:21,640 --> 00:27:26,240
military and security and
intelligence in order to try and

436
00:27:26,360 --> 00:27:32,000
deter and mitigate risk arising
from from that uncertainty.

437
00:27:32,280 --> 00:27:35,200
And that, and that's a super
slippery slope because the

438
00:27:35,200 --> 00:27:37,760
difference between
counterterrorism and terrorism

439
00:27:37,960 --> 00:27:41,280
is just who wins the war at that
point, you know, and the

440
00:27:41,280 --> 00:27:44,320
difference between the
difference between someone

441
00:27:44,320 --> 00:27:48,800
being, you know, doing and also
how far are you going to go to

442
00:27:48,960 --> 00:27:52,480
potentially protect from a
potential attack and what lines

443
00:27:52,480 --> 00:27:53,880
are you willing to cross to do
so?

444
00:27:54,160 --> 00:27:57,400
The show it was, it was fun for
the first bunch of seasons.

445
00:27:57,400 --> 00:28:00,960
Homelands did a really good job,
you know, breaking that down.

446
00:28:00,960 --> 00:28:04,680
That was a great show.
It's on Netflix now in the

447
00:28:04,680 --> 00:28:08,360
States.
But I, I, I, I loved it and I

448
00:28:08,360 --> 00:28:11,880
thought that there was a lot of
it that I couldn't believe was

449
00:28:11,880 --> 00:28:16,000
actually put on screen because
of how accurate and chilling it

450
00:28:16,000 --> 00:28:19,360
was.
And they and they got away with

451
00:28:19,360 --> 00:28:21,160
it somehow.
I guess freedom of speech really

452
00:28:21,160 --> 00:28:24,160
does exist, you know, in certain
in certain parts of the world.

453
00:28:24,640 --> 00:28:27,120
But yeah, I think it's really
great.

454
00:28:27,320 --> 00:28:32,760
So, so overall global, so, so
globalization has some pros and

455
00:28:32,760 --> 00:28:35,640
cons, but unfortunately, the
kind of way that we've been, the

456
00:28:35,640 --> 00:28:38,360
way that we, we've seen
globalization, particularly in

457
00:28:38,360 --> 00:28:40,720
an economic sense, and we're
going to kind of get to Africa

458
00:28:40,720 --> 00:28:43,800
this way, or at least Central
South and Central America and

459
00:28:43,800 --> 00:28:45,520
Africa.
The way that it kind of

460
00:28:45,520 --> 00:28:50,080
manifests from my understanding
is it rarely, rarely goes to the

461
00:28:50,080 --> 00:28:53,920
people and the people and, and,
and you know, so for example,

462
00:28:54,280 --> 00:29:00,240
when America or China will go to
Venezuela or Africa or whoever

463
00:29:00,520 --> 00:29:01,880
it's, or even Ukraine.
Yeah.

464
00:29:02,200 --> 00:29:05,360
You know, when, when, when
America gives Ukraine a loan, it

465
00:29:05,360 --> 00:29:07,920
gives them money.
It's not going to the pockets of

466
00:29:07,920 --> 00:29:10,000
the Ukrainians to manufacture
and build.

467
00:29:10,000 --> 00:29:12,880
It's going to Lockheed Martin or
it's going to American companies

468
00:29:13,200 --> 00:29:17,280
that are delivering their
products to Ukraine and then

469
00:29:17,280 --> 00:29:19,840
handing people handing the
Ukrainians over the bill and

470
00:29:19,840 --> 00:29:21,240
saying, OK, now it's time to pay
us back.

471
00:29:21,240 --> 00:29:23,760
And if not, we'll take your
minerals, we'll take your, you

472
00:29:23,760 --> 00:29:25,720
know, your, your weed and we'll
take whatever else we want to

473
00:29:25,720 --> 00:29:27,400
take.
We'll put in any kind of a

474
00:29:27,400 --> 00:29:31,920
leader we want.
But the people, the, the, the

475
00:29:31,920 --> 00:29:35,480
everyday people end up suffering
economically from this enormous

476
00:29:35,480 --> 00:29:37,840
debt that they didn't even get
any opportunity out of

477
00:29:37,840 --> 00:29:43,320
necessarily.
Has China changed up that

478
00:29:43,320 --> 00:29:45,720
strategy in the sense that
they've made it a little bit

479
00:29:45,720 --> 00:29:50,360
more enticing for the people
that that that, that that when

480
00:29:50,400 --> 00:29:52,360
where they placed loans?
Because I know America did a

481
00:29:52,360 --> 00:29:54,840
poor job with that.
And I'm curious if China hadn't

482
00:29:54,840 --> 00:29:57,160
learned from America's mistakes
or if that's some another path

483
00:29:57,160 --> 00:29:59,880
that's going to lead to more
frustration from the.

484
00:29:59,880 --> 00:30:05,360
Popular, Sure.
So I think, you know, what some

485
00:30:05,360 --> 00:30:10,160
people argue is that if you have
a strong government which is

486
00:30:10,200 --> 00:30:14,320
able to kind of negotiate
globalization, that it can be

487
00:30:14,320 --> 00:30:18,040
very beneficial.
So China, you know, was able to

488
00:30:18,040 --> 00:30:23,160
attract a lot of American,
European investment, make sure

489
00:30:23,160 --> 00:30:27,280
that those companies set up
joint ventures with Chinese

490
00:30:27,280 --> 00:30:31,280
companies, that there was
technology and knowledge

491
00:30:31,280 --> 00:30:36,080
transfer to Chinese people, and
then they were able to build up

492
00:30:36,080 --> 00:30:37,720
their own companies on that
basis.

493
00:30:38,400 --> 00:30:42,120
So quickly to just emphasize
your point, because I have this

494
00:30:42,120 --> 00:30:45,520
book here and apparently
alleged, according to John

495
00:30:45,520 --> 00:30:49,920
Perkins, the annual economic
rate of economic growth rate of

496
00:30:49,920 --> 00:30:53,640
nearly 10% for three decades and
elevated more than 700 million

497
00:30:53,640 --> 00:30:57,040
people out of extreme poverty in
China, 700 million people.

498
00:30:57,040 --> 00:30:58,680
It's twice as many people that
are in the States.

499
00:30:59,040 --> 00:31:00,280
And that's.
Incredible.

500
00:31:00,640 --> 00:31:04,280
Yeah.
So, you know, some places have

501
00:31:04,280 --> 00:31:08,760
benefited from globalization.
The Chinese government arguably

502
00:31:08,760 --> 00:31:13,120
managed it very skillfully to
their own ends.

503
00:31:14,160 --> 00:31:20,160
But to keep that rate of
economic growth going, you're

504
00:31:20,160 --> 00:31:22,360
going to need a lot of natural
resources.

505
00:31:22,920 --> 00:31:25,480
You're also going to need export
markets.

506
00:31:25,520 --> 00:31:27,880
OK.
And what if you think back, you

507
00:31:27,880 --> 00:31:33,040
know, to the 19th century or
late 18th century, when the

508
00:31:33,040 --> 00:31:36,080
Europeans were colonizing
different parts of the world,

509
00:31:36,080 --> 00:31:38,040
what were they looking for?
They were looking for natural

510
00:31:38,040 --> 00:31:40,280
resources to fuel their
industries.

511
00:31:40,480 --> 00:31:43,920
They were looking for their
markets to be able to sell

512
00:31:44,000 --> 00:31:47,120
overseas, right, to boost their
own economy.

513
00:31:47,120 --> 00:31:51,480
So you see these parallels
happening that domestically,

514
00:31:51,480 --> 00:31:54,640
yes, you know, there's been a
massive economic transformation

515
00:31:54,640 --> 00:32:00,400
in China, but externally those
kinds of extractive demands are

516
00:32:00,400 --> 00:32:05,240
still being placed on weaker, if
I can put in those terms, parts

517
00:32:05,320 --> 00:32:07,800
of the world economically and
politically.

518
00:32:09,240 --> 00:32:14,640
And so, you know, it, some
people talk about elite capture

519
00:32:14,640 --> 00:32:18,920
strategies that if you can get
to the heads of state, the

520
00:32:18,920 --> 00:32:23,160
decision makers in Africa or
Latin America, convince them to

521
00:32:23,160 --> 00:32:27,160
give you mineral deals or to
take on debt or buy, you know,

522
00:32:28,280 --> 00:32:31,360
more Chinese goods through trade
agreements and things like that,

523
00:32:31,360 --> 00:32:34,480
you know, that opens up those
kind of possibilities.

524
00:32:34,880 --> 00:32:39,960
So domestically it has been
largely economically beneficial,

525
00:32:41,000 --> 00:32:45,560
but externally it has generated
all sorts of, of problems as

526
00:32:45,560 --> 00:32:50,760
well as new forms of investment.
You know, there, there the, the,

527
00:32:51,720 --> 00:32:55,960
there isn't a one to one kind of
analogy between European

528
00:32:55,960 --> 00:32:59,520
colonialism in Africa and
Chinese engagement in Africa.

529
00:32:59,520 --> 00:33:05,200
Now the, the Chinese have done
things like built special

530
00:33:05,200 --> 00:33:09,040
economic zones.
They have invested more in

531
00:33:09,040 --> 00:33:11,720
different types of
infrastructures, often

532
00:33:11,720 --> 00:33:14,880
benefiting as you're talking
about Chinese companies, you

533
00:33:14,880 --> 00:33:18,320
know, supplying the steel and
the cement and getting interest

534
00:33:18,320 --> 00:33:20,480
on loans and all of those kinds
of things.

535
00:33:20,480 --> 00:33:24,760
But the, the balance of
benefits, you know, tilts very

536
00:33:24,760 --> 00:33:29,000
strongly towards China.
But there have been

537
00:33:29,000 --> 00:33:31,640
beneficiaries as well.
You know, people have gotten

538
00:33:31,640 --> 00:33:36,040
jobs, people have been able to
set up their own businesses to

539
00:33:36,040 --> 00:33:39,640
supply Chinese investors.
So it's a, it's a, it's a mixed

540
00:33:39,640 --> 00:33:41,720
bag.
Yeah, yeah.

541
00:33:42,040 --> 00:33:45,960
And I think that this is also
kind of a really cool potential

542
00:33:45,960 --> 00:33:53,320
example of I think that there
are ways to succeed as an

543
00:33:53,320 --> 00:33:55,280
establishment in an established
country.

544
00:33:55,280 --> 00:33:59,800
And there are ways to succeed as
a young, nimble, creative and a

545
00:33:59,800 --> 00:34:04,400
little bit less weighted with
your own success.

546
00:34:04,400 --> 00:34:07,560
You know, country countries that
that would be, for example,

547
00:34:07,560 --> 00:34:11,320
relatively weaker, again,
politically or economically

548
00:34:11,320 --> 00:34:14,920
compared to China or America,
that there's a lot of

549
00:34:14,920 --> 00:34:17,159
opportunity to build things up
now.

550
00:34:17,239 --> 00:34:21,800
And, and there, and I mentioned
this other, I was having another

551
00:34:21,800 --> 00:34:25,440
conversation recently and I was,
I was talking about how I teach

552
00:34:25,440 --> 00:34:28,840
my, I show my high school
students Steve Jobs commencement

553
00:34:28,840 --> 00:34:31,000
speech at Harvard.
And one of the things they

554
00:34:31,000 --> 00:34:34,080
talked about is the value of he
says that sometimes when you're

555
00:34:34,080 --> 00:34:38,000
too successful, you get weighed
down and you get comfortable and

556
00:34:38,040 --> 00:34:41,600
you, you, you miss that young
entrepreneurial and excited

557
00:34:41,600 --> 00:34:44,280
spirit, that youthful spirit.
And he said the best thing that

558
00:34:44,280 --> 00:34:46,560
happened to him was when he got
fired from Apple, that he was

559
00:34:46,560 --> 00:34:50,120
able to, he, he found it and
that he found next and Pixar as

560
00:34:50,120 --> 00:34:53,120
a consequence, because he
realized I could I, I, I, you

561
00:34:53,120 --> 00:34:57,800
know, I was so focused on the
mechanics of being Apple and the

562
00:34:58,000 --> 00:35:04,200
CEO and the man that I, that I
forgot what it's like to be

563
00:35:04,200 --> 00:35:06,960
young and excited.
And so I think that there

564
00:35:07,480 --> 00:35:12,480
hopefully could present a lot of
opportunity for I, I hope that

565
00:35:12,480 --> 00:35:16,000
these younger, these younger,
especially less regulated

566
00:35:16,000 --> 00:35:18,800
societies.
I mean, you know, regulation

567
00:35:18,800 --> 00:35:20,640
obviously is a response to
corruption.

568
00:35:20,640 --> 00:35:22,360
And then regulation breeds its
own corruption.

569
00:35:22,680 --> 00:35:25,480
But, but especially if you're
young and you're starting

570
00:35:25,480 --> 00:35:29,160
America's only 250 years old.
And we feel, and we, and the way

571
00:35:29,160 --> 00:35:32,400
that we go about life is we're
the only thing that's ever

572
00:35:32,400 --> 00:35:36,000
existed on planet Earth for, you
know, and, and nothing started

573
00:35:36,000 --> 00:35:38,160
really before, before we even
got here.

574
00:35:38,400 --> 00:35:41,120
And we know that not to be the
case, but we also see that how

575
00:35:41,120 --> 00:35:44,320
much potential and how much
productivity could come from a

576
00:35:44,320 --> 00:35:48,360
young and inspired and
potentially and, and, you know,

577
00:35:48,800 --> 00:35:51,960
upgraded, upgraded as far as
infrastructure, electricity and,

578
00:35:52,240 --> 00:35:55,120
and, and, and and and and and so
on.

579
00:35:55,120 --> 00:36:00,760
I don't know what else they do,
but electricity, at least what

580
00:36:00,760 --> 00:36:02,160
you can do with it, there's a
lot of potential.

581
00:36:03,520 --> 00:36:12,720
Yeah, I suppose America is young
in in one sense, but it's it's

582
00:36:12,720 --> 00:36:16,560
the established was the
established kind of superpower

583
00:36:16,880 --> 00:36:20,160
and it had that position, you
know, pretty much.

584
00:36:20,520 --> 00:36:23,240
Well, obviously the Soviet Union
challenged it, but it didn't

585
00:36:23,240 --> 00:36:25,720
challenge it economically the
way China does.

586
00:36:26,840 --> 00:36:30,880
So you can still hear me.
Oh, you've you've muted your

587
00:36:30,880 --> 00:36:31,320
mic.
Yeah.

588
00:36:31,920 --> 00:36:32,440
So.
Yeah.

589
00:36:33,160 --> 00:36:38,320
So, you know, it's, it's looking
at itself how to preserve it's

590
00:36:38,320 --> 00:36:44,040
kind of advantages.
And one of the ways to seems to

591
00:36:44,200 --> 00:36:47,120
have, well, the Trump
administration thinks it can do

592
00:36:47,120 --> 00:36:51,960
that is by trying to seal off
itself from the outside world,

593
00:36:51,960 --> 00:36:57,200
reduce the inflow of immigrants,
put up tariff barriers, retract

594
00:36:57,200 --> 00:37:01,120
from international commitments.
Whereas that has opened the door

595
00:37:01,120 --> 00:37:05,400
for China to adopt A different
approach, which is no, we're,

596
00:37:05,400 --> 00:37:10,440
it's not a very welcoming or
open country to, I won't say

597
00:37:10,440 --> 00:37:13,760
welcoming, but it's not a very
open country to, to immigrants.

598
00:37:14,560 --> 00:37:18,720
But in response to the Trump
administration levying very

599
00:37:18,720 --> 00:37:22,480
substantial tariffs on Africa,
the Chinese government announced

600
00:37:22,480 --> 00:37:26,400
that all exports from Africa or
African countries with which it

601
00:37:26,400 --> 00:37:30,600
has diplomatic relations would
now enter China duty free.

602
00:37:31,160 --> 00:37:35,400
So a very different approach,
trying to gather in allies, take

603
00:37:35,400 --> 00:37:42,960
advantage strategically of this
attempt to kind of maintain the

604
00:37:42,960 --> 00:37:46,720
benefits of globalization by
promoting American exports, but

605
00:37:46,720 --> 00:37:50,360
seal off things that are
perceived to be less desirable.

606
00:37:50,760 --> 00:37:54,840
But of course, if you look at
the performance of the American

607
00:37:54,840 --> 00:37:58,560
economy over the last number of
decades since the financial

608
00:37:58,560 --> 00:38:00,760
crisis, it's actually been quite
strong.

609
00:38:01,080 --> 00:38:05,080
You know, the The Economist had
a cover story a couple of years

610
00:38:05,080 --> 00:38:09,680
ago about, you know, talking
about how it was the growth

611
00:38:09,680 --> 00:38:13,440
performance in the United States
was absolutely exceptional in,

612
00:38:14,040 --> 00:38:18,800
you know, in world terms.
And so people look at that and

613
00:38:18,800 --> 00:38:25,920
they say, well, you know, if if
the economy was doing well in at

614
00:38:25,920 --> 00:38:29,120
a kind of macro level, is this a
good strategy?

615
00:38:29,120 --> 00:38:33,080
Now, the problem was that with
all of the wealth that was being

616
00:38:33,080 --> 00:38:36,360
generated in the US, it was
highly unevenly distributed.

617
00:38:36,880 --> 00:38:43,160
I saw a map a couple of weeks
ago showing where 50% of wealth

618
00:38:43,160 --> 00:38:46,040
was concentrated.
And it's all in a huge amount of

619
00:38:46,040 --> 00:38:49,320
it is in big cities, New York,
San Francisco.

620
00:38:49,720 --> 00:38:52,560
And then you have these what
geographers called left behind

621
00:38:52,560 --> 00:38:55,240
places.
We still have a lot of people in

622
00:38:55,240 --> 00:38:57,440
them.
They see their industries

623
00:38:57,440 --> 00:38:59,880
closing, living standards going
down.

624
00:38:59,880 --> 00:39:02,000
They're in debt.
They're they're living paycheck

625
00:39:02,000 --> 00:39:06,000
to paycheck.
And so that generates a

626
00:39:06,000 --> 00:39:10,560
political backlash.
So the inequality both socially

627
00:39:11,080 --> 00:39:15,480
and in terms of the geography
then creates, created this

628
00:39:15,480 --> 00:39:20,440
dynamic where there's, there's
this impulse to try and seal

629
00:39:20,440 --> 00:39:27,800
yourself off and re re engineer
the system to try and as I say,

630
00:39:27,800 --> 00:39:30,360
maximize the benefits and
minimize the perceived

631
00:39:30,360 --> 00:39:34,440
negatives.
But it, it doesn't seem to be

632
00:39:34,440 --> 00:39:37,480
working from an economic
perspective.

633
00:39:37,480 --> 00:39:44,160
I saw, I saw the US only added
17,000 jobs in the the latest

634
00:39:44,160 --> 00:39:46,320
payroll report.
And if you strip out the

635
00:39:46,320 --> 00:39:49,560
healthcare sector, it's actually
strongly negative.

636
00:39:50,760 --> 00:39:54,360
And that is a big contrast to
what was happening previously.

637
00:39:55,000 --> 00:39:59,520
So again, you have this this
paradox where people maybe vote

638
00:39:59,680 --> 00:40:04,240
for something, but they end up
worse off potentially or many of

639
00:40:04,240 --> 00:40:07,920
them than they were initially.
But it's frustration.

640
00:40:07,920 --> 00:40:10,960
It's kind of throw up the snow
globe and and see how things

641
00:40:10,960 --> 00:40:13,120
land.
Yeah, yeah, yeah.

642
00:40:13,120 --> 00:40:15,920
It's, oh man, you're cut.
You, you're covering so much

643
00:40:16,240 --> 00:40:22,240
great ground in a few short
sentences because that's really

644
00:40:22,320 --> 00:40:26,520
a huge problem.
And and how, and this also

645
00:40:26,520 --> 00:40:29,120
emphasizes really strongly how
important geography is to be

646
00:40:29,120 --> 00:40:34,200
able to outline and understand
exactly what the people,

647
00:40:34,200 --> 00:40:37,160
especially when you're a
populist or, or I guess even

648
00:40:37,160 --> 00:40:41,160
like you could argue that Trump
is definitely ran on a populist

649
00:40:41,160 --> 00:40:43,240
agenda, whether it's actually
being applied or not, it's

650
00:40:43,240 --> 00:40:46,240
another conversation or how it's
going to be applied because

651
00:40:47,440 --> 00:40:51,840
we'll see.
But, but either way, you know,

652
00:40:51,840 --> 00:40:54,160
imagine and, and this was
another example that was, that

653
00:40:54,160 --> 00:40:56,080
was in the book, we have 5
people.

654
00:40:56,080 --> 00:40:57,840
And it's very easy to say
there's probably even three

655
00:40:57,840 --> 00:40:59,720
people with half the wealth in
America.

656
00:41:00,000 --> 00:41:05,360
You know, Elon Musk, Steve, you
know, Bill Gates and you know,

657
00:41:05,360 --> 00:41:06,840
and a couple other people,
right?

658
00:41:07,120 --> 00:41:12,080
And they make 10% annual, they
make 10% a year on their

659
00:41:12,080 --> 00:41:17,280
investments, say, and the other
half of the economy, right?

660
00:41:17,280 --> 00:41:19,600
Because they have half the the
total wealth, the other half,

661
00:41:20,400 --> 00:41:24,040
half of them gained 3%.
Sorry, lose 3% and half of them

662
00:41:24,040 --> 00:41:29,040
stay about equal, right?
The economy is still doing well.

663
00:41:29,040 --> 00:41:32,320
The economy is still up because
the three to five people that

664
00:41:32,320 --> 00:41:36,880
have half the wealth have gained
enough wealth that covers more

665
00:41:36,880 --> 00:41:39,720
than half of the total amount of
money the country even makes.

666
00:41:40,040 --> 00:41:43,320
And so when people so when Trump
says or when Biden has been

667
00:41:43,320 --> 00:41:45,520
saying or what?
And it's, it's funny because

668
00:41:45,800 --> 00:41:48,640
again, you vote right, you vote
left, you get the same policies

669
00:41:48,640 --> 00:41:50,280
a lot of time.
And at the end of the day, you

670
00:41:50,280 --> 00:41:52,520
know, the way that it ends up
manifesting culturally is

671
00:41:52,520 --> 00:41:55,000
probably different.
But as far as economics and a

672
00:41:55,000 --> 00:41:57,480
lot of this other stuff, it
really ends up being very

673
00:41:57,480 --> 00:42:02,040
similar.
And it's, and people feel and a

674
00:42:02,040 --> 00:42:04,920
certain point when Trump and
Biden and everyone say the

675
00:42:04,920 --> 00:42:07,160
economy is doing great, The
economy is growing every year.

676
00:42:07,160 --> 00:42:10,640
And people are like, I, I went
to the store and I buy cottage

677
00:42:10,640 --> 00:42:12,920
cheese and milk and I spend
1295.

678
00:42:13,200 --> 00:42:15,880
And I'm like, what are they
talking about?

679
00:42:15,880 --> 00:42:17,800
I, I can't keep, I can't keep up
with this.

680
00:42:17,800 --> 00:42:20,240
And, and you know, and it
happens to be that I happen to

681
00:42:20,240 --> 00:42:21,880
be fortunate.
I am relatively fortunate.

682
00:42:21,880 --> 00:42:25,840
I, you know, I mean, I, I, I, I,
I could, I have a mortgage and

683
00:42:25,840 --> 00:42:28,680
I, and I own my home and I have
two kids and I work extremely

684
00:42:28,680 --> 00:42:31,320
hard and, and I still can't keep
up.

685
00:42:31,320 --> 00:42:32,880
And, and so I can't even
imagine.

686
00:42:33,160 --> 00:42:35,280
And I had no debt.
I had no student debt, Thank

687
00:42:35,280 --> 00:42:36,520
God.
You know, my dad, I went to a

688
00:42:36,520 --> 00:42:38,680
State College.
I paid 5 grand a year for, for,

689
00:42:38,960 --> 00:42:43,080
for, for tuition.
And, but I can't imagine what

690
00:42:43,080 --> 00:42:45,560
most people are going through
and, and, and it's really

691
00:42:45,560 --> 00:42:47,480
devastating.
It's and you're getting that

692
00:42:47,480 --> 00:42:51,040
feel there's like an impatient
feel with at least in the states

693
00:42:51,040 --> 00:42:54,000
from that's that's very tangible
that says can you stop at least

694
00:42:54,080 --> 00:42:56,880
saying that everything is going
well and news pretend to address

695
00:42:57,120 --> 00:42:59,880
the issues that the people are
feeling on a day-to-day basis.

696
00:43:00,400 --> 00:43:04,200
Yeah.
And I suppose one of the other

697
00:43:04,200 --> 00:43:08,840
features of globalization is it
is subject to these periodic

698
00:43:08,840 --> 00:43:11,800
shocks with long lived
consequences.

699
00:43:12,240 --> 00:43:16,200
And I think probably the two
most consequential of those

700
00:43:16,200 --> 00:43:21,160
recently have been the so-called
global financial crisis.

701
00:43:21,160 --> 00:43:24,080
But really what the Chinese call
it is the North Atlantic

702
00:43:24,080 --> 00:43:26,680
financial crisis because it was
the US and Europe that, you

703
00:43:26,680 --> 00:43:33,040
know, China kept growing and and
then and then the COVID

704
00:43:33,400 --> 00:43:39,040
pandemic, which spread rapidly
because we are so interconnected

705
00:43:39,040 --> 00:43:42,360
and you know, people talk about
diseases of globalization.

706
00:43:42,360 --> 00:43:46,680
So when you have, you know, a
transmission as one transmission

707
00:43:46,680 --> 00:43:50,640
event to a person, however it
was transmitted, whether it was

708
00:43:50,640 --> 00:43:55,800
a lab leak or whether it was,
you know, a species jumping

709
00:43:56,000 --> 00:43:59,240
incident in a wet market in
Wuhan.

710
00:43:59,800 --> 00:44:04,320
A tiny little event like that
has these global ramifications

711
00:44:04,360 --> 00:44:08,200
in terms of people's lives,
inflation, debt levels for

712
00:44:08,200 --> 00:44:14,480
countries, you know, massive.
And of course, the the big one,

713
00:44:14,480 --> 00:44:18,760
that is what some people refer
to as a kind of grey rhino.

714
00:44:18,760 --> 00:44:22,000
So it's slow moving.
You can see it, but it's not a

715
00:44:22,000 --> 00:44:24,120
Black Swan.
You don't see it, you know, very

716
00:44:24,120 --> 00:44:27,280
clearly it's not coming quick,
but it's it's moving.

717
00:44:27,280 --> 00:44:29,520
It's moving slowly trundling
towards us.

718
00:44:29,840 --> 00:44:33,200
Yeah.
Is the climate crisis and and of

719
00:44:33,200 --> 00:44:37,280
course also we have artificial
intelligence.

720
00:44:37,840 --> 00:44:41,040
You know, there there is a, an
economist who was a former

721
00:44:41,040 --> 00:44:46,640
adviser to, I think it was, it
was George Bush senior in the

722
00:44:46,640 --> 00:44:50,520
White House, Richard Bolton.
He teaches in Switzerland and he

723
00:44:50,520 --> 00:44:52,360
had a book a couple of years
ago.

724
00:44:52,360 --> 00:44:55,520
Yeah, the Graduate Institute, I
think in Geneva.

725
00:44:56,040 --> 00:45:00,440
We he came to give a talk here a
few years ago, but he had a book

726
00:45:00,440 --> 00:45:02,640
a few years ago called The
Globotics Upheaval.

727
00:45:02,640 --> 00:45:06,240
And he said, he says in that
book, if you thought, you know,

728
00:45:07,920 --> 00:45:10,400
the hollowing out of the
American and European

729
00:45:11,040 --> 00:45:14,520
manufacturing sectors and the
political backlash that we are

730
00:45:14,520 --> 00:45:18,840
getting from that was bad, wait
until the accountants, wait

731
00:45:18,840 --> 00:45:23,400
until the teachers, wait until
the middle class professions are

732
00:45:23,400 --> 00:45:26,400
gutted by artificial
intelligence.

733
00:45:26,400 --> 00:45:31,720
What will that do for inequality
and the politics associated with

734
00:45:31,720 --> 00:45:35,720
that?
So it's not a very kind of

735
00:45:35,760 --> 00:45:39,080
optimistic necessary, but it's,
it's, it's necessary to be

736
00:45:39,080 --> 00:45:43,000
realistic, to think about, you
know, what kinds of regulations

737
00:45:43,000 --> 00:45:44,720
then need to be put put in
place.

738
00:45:45,200 --> 00:45:50,200
How can these things be kind of
developed in responsible ways

739
00:45:50,200 --> 00:45:54,880
and used in responsible ways so
that they don't feed into these

740
00:45:54,960 --> 00:45:58,160
bigger problems that we we all
see kind of emerging?

741
00:45:58,240 --> 00:46:00,720
Coming down the road, Yeah,
yeah, I, I have a lot of

742
00:46:00,720 --> 00:46:05,080
thoughts and I want to actually,
I, I, it's been 45 minutes and

743
00:46:05,080 --> 00:46:07,600
we haven't even touched Africa
yet, which I even showed how

744
00:46:07,600 --> 00:46:08,920
much I'm enjoying this
conversation.

745
00:46:09,200 --> 00:46:14,160
Yeah, but, but I, I, I, you
know, our last thought perhaps

746
00:46:14,160 --> 00:46:15,840
and, you know, and then we'll
move over.

747
00:46:15,840 --> 00:46:22,080
Is that what I'm, I'm more
concerned about over AI is the

748
00:46:22,080 --> 00:46:26,800
combination of AI and robotics,
where as in you put, you take

749
00:46:26,800 --> 00:46:30,240
Elon Musk's Tesla robot and you
stick Grok in it and then you

750
00:46:30,240 --> 00:46:33,440
have it, then you have it doing
actual manual labor.

751
00:46:33,440 --> 00:46:37,760
And I think that I, I don't
know.

752
00:46:37,800 --> 00:46:41,680
I think that in the future, even
50 years from now, and perhaps

753
00:46:41,720 --> 00:46:44,600
I'm, I'm, you know, I'm sure
there'll be varying degrees in

754
00:46:44,600 --> 00:46:46,280
which this is kind of right and
mostly wrong.

755
00:46:46,520 --> 00:46:50,560
That, that, that the, that the
difference between I think

756
00:46:50,560 --> 00:46:53,480
classes and people and society
is not going to be based on

757
00:46:53,480 --> 00:46:57,080
money, but can be based on
meaning and Wellness and like

758
00:46:57,080 --> 00:46:59,880
mental Wellness.
And, and I think that it's going

759
00:46:59,880 --> 00:47:03,880
to, and if you really combine AI
and robotics to the extent that

760
00:47:03,880 --> 00:47:07,960
you can really make everything
so cheap and create wealth and

761
00:47:07,960 --> 00:47:12,400
create resources that we've not
never been able to do on a scale

762
00:47:12,400 --> 00:47:15,360
that cheap before.
Then the question really is

763
00:47:15,360 --> 00:47:17,480
going to become, well, what do
you do with your life?

764
00:47:17,720 --> 00:47:20,440
And what do you do if you if you
don't have a job and you don't

765
00:47:20,440 --> 00:47:23,800
need a job and you have a house,
Are you gonna be smoking weed

766
00:47:23,800 --> 00:47:24,680
all day?
Are you gonna be drinking

767
00:47:24,680 --> 00:47:26,360
Guinness all day?
Are you gonna be, are you gonna

768
00:47:26,360 --> 00:47:28,680
be having ten kids?
Are you gonna be, are you gonna

769
00:47:28,680 --> 00:47:30,480
be doing creative projects?
What are you gonna be doing?

770
00:47:30,480 --> 00:47:32,640
And I think that what's gonna be
the difference?

771
00:47:32,680 --> 00:47:34,880
I think that we're gonna go
through definitely.

772
00:47:35,480 --> 00:47:39,480
And also I think that even as
far as technology goes, wherever

773
00:47:39,480 --> 00:47:42,040
technology is, it also takes
people a long time to kind of

774
00:47:42,040 --> 00:47:44,920
catch up to what technology is
capable of actually achieving.

775
00:47:45,160 --> 00:47:48,800
Like what AI can do at the
moment versus what people are

776
00:47:48,800 --> 00:47:52,120
using AI for are worlds apart,
you know?

777
00:47:52,120 --> 00:47:54,400
And I think that it takes time
for people to kind of figure

778
00:47:54,400 --> 00:47:57,360
out, oh, I can do that and I
could do that and I could do

779
00:47:57,360 --> 00:47:58,520
that.
Eventually I'll get to the point

780
00:47:58,520 --> 00:48:01,240
where it's kind of where it's
almost self-explanatory,

781
00:48:01,720 --> 00:48:04,200
self-explanatory and it won't
need to catch up.

782
00:48:04,520 --> 00:48:07,200
But I think at that point, the
question really is going to be,

783
00:48:08,000 --> 00:48:10,280
I think life is going to become
about exploration and meaning.

784
00:48:10,280 --> 00:48:13,000
And at that point, you know,
we're going to get somewhere

785
00:48:13,000 --> 00:48:15,200
else.
Yeah, sounds a bit like Karl

786
00:48:15,200 --> 00:48:17,360
Marx's vision of communism, that
Frank.

787
00:48:21,400 --> 00:48:24,600
Capitalism, it's post capitalism
for sure, but we know that this

788
00:48:24,600 --> 00:48:29,320
version of this corporatocracy
capitalism where it where, where

789
00:48:29,320 --> 00:48:34,440
corporations, banks and
governments suck out the the

790
00:48:34,440 --> 00:48:37,320
resources from the people is not
going.

791
00:48:37,360 --> 00:48:42,240
It can't be sustained very long.
And, and it's been going on for,

792
00:48:42,760 --> 00:48:46,440
let's say, if you want to say
like very, very conservatively

793
00:48:46,440 --> 00:48:49,200
25 years, but it's been really
going on since World War 2

794
00:48:49,200 --> 00:48:54,280
almost it feels like.
So yeah, I'm just saying one

795
00:48:54,280 --> 00:48:55,600
thing.
You're prompting a thought as

796
00:48:55,600 --> 00:48:59,680
well, which is apparently one
out of every two robots in the

797
00:48:59,680 --> 00:49:04,720
world is now deployed in China.
And if you look and that and

798
00:49:04,720 --> 00:49:06,120
they're manufacturing them as
well.

799
00:49:07,320 --> 00:49:12,480
But but if you look down at
Chinese exports there in the

800
00:49:12,480 --> 00:49:16,480
last couple of years, they're
actually gaining market share in

801
00:49:16,600 --> 00:49:20,480
traditionally labor intensive
things like clothing, which used

802
00:49:20,480 --> 00:49:22,280
to require a lot of manual
labor.

803
00:49:22,800 --> 00:49:26,160
The robots that would be
purposed and designed to do

804
00:49:26,160 --> 00:49:26,760
these things.
So.

805
00:49:26,960 --> 00:49:32,880
So China is mocking the trend by
not losing a lot it's

806
00:49:32,880 --> 00:49:36,720
manufacturing industry, but
automating, robotizing, using

807
00:49:36,720 --> 00:49:40,160
AI, the things you're talking
about in order to maintain its

808
00:49:40,160 --> 00:49:43,280
advantage even in the lower end
or what were traditionally

809
00:49:43,280 --> 00:49:46,600
thought of as lower end kind of
economic activities.

810
00:49:46,760 --> 00:49:48,560
And what are the people doing
now?

811
00:49:48,560 --> 00:49:51,320
What are the people, the people
whose jobs they're replacing

812
00:49:51,320 --> 00:49:52,760
now?
Are they What?

813
00:49:53,040 --> 00:49:54,000
What happened?
So.

814
00:49:54,200 --> 00:49:58,320
So the Chinese economy is a kind
of dual economy.

815
00:49:59,320 --> 00:50:02,600
So if you look, you know, the
Chinese government says the

816
00:50:02,600 --> 00:50:06,680
economy is growing at around 5%,
which is still a fast rate of

817
00:50:06,720 --> 00:50:09,920
economic growth.
Other independent groups like

818
00:50:09,920 --> 00:50:14,160
the Rhodium Group say it's much
closer to two and a half, 3%.

819
00:50:14,600 --> 00:50:18,280
And property prices are falling
dramatically and property

820
00:50:18,280 --> 00:50:20,800
accounts for about 1/3 of the
Chinese economy.

821
00:50:21,200 --> 00:50:25,600
So the, the macro economy and
the macroeconomic picture in

822
00:50:25,600 --> 00:50:29,920
China is very poor.
There's high debt levels.

823
00:50:30,960 --> 00:50:34,760
So people talk about peak China.
Have we hit peak China has, you

824
00:50:34,760 --> 00:50:38,360
know, the, the idea that China
is going to be ruling the world

825
00:50:38,360 --> 00:50:42,040
in the next couple of decades,
Is that misplaced because of

826
00:50:42,040 --> 00:50:46,520
these troubles that the Chinese
economy is undergoing?

827
00:50:46,880 --> 00:50:51,960
But at the same time, there is
very dynamic sectors of the

828
00:50:51,960 --> 00:50:56,800
Chinese economy, artificial
intelligence, renewable energy,

829
00:50:57,960 --> 00:51:03,160
you know, the, the, the Chinese
trade surplus hit over a

830
00:51:03,160 --> 00:51:05,400
trillion dollars last year for
the first time.

831
00:51:05,640 --> 00:51:08,560
So they're dominating in the
industries of the future.

832
00:51:08,560 --> 00:51:13,480
But when you have approximately
1.4 billion people, not

833
00:51:13,480 --> 00:51:16,800
everybody can be a software
engineer or design robots or

834
00:51:16,800 --> 00:51:18,360
whatever.
So it's a very, it's a very

835
00:51:18,360 --> 00:51:23,640
dualistic economy.
And youth unemployment was

836
00:51:23,640 --> 00:51:28,000
reported a couple of years ago
at 21 or 22%.

837
00:51:28,480 --> 00:51:31,200
The Chinese government didn't
like that statistic, so it

838
00:51:31,200 --> 00:51:35,000
cancelled the statistical series
which produced that result.

839
00:51:37,360 --> 00:51:41,480
And then now on a youth
unemployment in China is now

840
00:51:41,480 --> 00:51:43,280
apparently about 14%.
Wow.

841
00:51:43,560 --> 00:51:46,240
That's incredible.
But they're, but they're all,

842
00:51:46,240 --> 00:51:51,160
there's this phenomenon called
lying flat in China, which is,

843
00:51:51,160 --> 00:51:57,400
you know, the kind of Western
stereotype of Chinese college

844
00:51:57,400 --> 00:52:01,520
students or educated people is
they're incredibly motivated,

845
00:52:01,520 --> 00:52:06,000
high achieving, you know, really
good at STEM math subjects, all

846
00:52:06,000 --> 00:52:09,200
that kind of stuff.
But this phenomenon of lying

847
00:52:09,200 --> 00:52:12,920
flat is basically where young
people say, OK, I have a college

848
00:52:12,920 --> 00:52:15,680
degree, maybe I even have a
master's, but there's no point

849
00:52:15,680 --> 00:52:17,600
in looking for a job because I'm
just not going to find it.

850
00:52:17,600 --> 00:52:19,920
It's better to lie flat and just
take it easy.

851
00:52:21,120 --> 00:52:25,400
So there were the, The New York
Times had a story a couple of

852
00:52:25,400 --> 00:52:29,240
years ago about I think it was a
cigarette factory.

853
00:52:29,680 --> 00:52:33,080
And a lot of the people working
on the production lines had

854
00:52:33,120 --> 00:52:36,120
undergraduate degrees, if not
master's degrees, you know, So

855
00:52:36,120 --> 00:52:40,240
that gives you a sense that
there's something wrong, wrong

856
00:52:40,240 --> 00:52:44,400
and badly wrong in the economy.
So it's.

857
00:52:44,920 --> 00:52:46,440
Not happening here fortunately
either.

858
00:52:46,600 --> 00:52:50,280
And I don't know whether Europe
is experiencing the same kind of

859
00:52:51,000 --> 00:52:56,120
issues with America that we call
it education inflation or the

860
00:52:56,120 --> 00:52:58,640
degree inflation occurs.
I don't know if it's quite the

861
00:52:58,640 --> 00:53:02,800
same there as it is here, but to
do anything you got to, you got

862
00:53:02,800 --> 00:53:05,760
to get a job that requires a
master's degree and several

863
00:53:05,760 --> 00:53:07,720
$100,000 of debt to start
paying.

864
00:53:07,720 --> 00:53:11,440
You start getting $60,000 a
year, $75,000 a year, even 100.

865
00:53:11,440 --> 00:53:14,000
But like, how, how, how, how far
does that take you in today's

866
00:53:14,000 --> 00:53:16,920
world, really?
Yeah, Yeah, I suppose education

867
00:53:16,920 --> 00:53:20,880
is generally more socialized in
Europe and cheaper if you have.

868
00:53:20,880 --> 00:53:25,160
So yes, debt, the debt is not as
big generally as.

869
00:53:25,880 --> 00:53:32,000
Someone yesterday that went to
that A musician, Doctor

870
00:53:32,000 --> 00:53:36,760
Ellenberger, and he said that he
was in Austria for a couple of

871
00:53:36,760 --> 00:53:40,400
semesters and he said that the
school was free.

872
00:53:40,400 --> 00:53:43,320
He goes they had a fraction of
the students attending the music

873
00:53:43,320 --> 00:53:46,120
school as America did, but the
people that did attend the

874
00:53:46,120 --> 00:53:50,920
school were he goes, these were
the equivalent of really

875
00:53:50,920 --> 00:53:53,800
sophisticated and mature
musicians at 1718 years old.

876
00:53:53,800 --> 00:53:56,760
And he goes so the bar is high
education is free, but the but

877
00:53:56,760 --> 00:54:00,000
the classes and the amount of
people attending are smaller.

878
00:54:01,440 --> 00:54:02,680
Really interesting.
Yeah.

879
00:54:03,000 --> 00:54:06,400
So Africa.
Yes, Africa.

880
00:54:06,680 --> 00:54:08,080
We can talk.
I want to talk.

881
00:54:08,080 --> 00:54:11,560
There's a couple of topics I
think I would like to learn more

882
00:54:11,560 --> 00:54:15,640
about.
Why don't we?

883
00:54:15,640 --> 00:54:18,920
Can we start as far just for I
think because it's kind of a hot

884
00:54:18,920 --> 00:54:20,400
topic in the news.
Somalia.

885
00:54:20,880 --> 00:54:25,840
And I know that the CIA has been
sneaking around there quite a

886
00:54:25,840 --> 00:54:27,720
bit.
And since they've been sneaking

887
00:54:27,720 --> 00:54:32,200
around the Somalian population
in Minnesota, I believe the alma

888
00:54:32,200 --> 00:54:38,320
mater and, and Ohio have really,
and I think Columbus or

889
00:54:38,320 --> 00:54:39,800
Cleveland, OH have really
spiked.

890
00:54:40,040 --> 00:54:41,840
But I don't know anything that's
going on over there.

891
00:54:41,840 --> 00:54:46,000
And what do they have that we
would want as far as far as

892
00:54:46,000 --> 00:54:50,000
geography, minerals or strategic
planning that we'd be invested

893
00:54:50,000 --> 00:54:54,800
in?
Them OK so the central

894
00:54:54,800 --> 00:54:58,720
government in Somalia collapsed
Siad Barre's government

895
00:54:58,720 --> 00:55:01,920
collapsed in 1991 so.
Where's Somalia?

896
00:55:01,920 --> 00:55:04,480
Real quickly.
Somalia, Somalia is in the Horn

897
00:55:04,480 --> 00:55:06,480
of Africa, the so-called Horn of
Africa.

898
00:55:06,480 --> 00:55:10,440
So it's on the on the Red Sea on
the East Coast of Africa,

899
00:55:10,440 --> 00:55:12,280
Northeast Africa.
Gotcha.

900
00:55:12,320 --> 00:55:14,680
OK.
And so it's very close to the

901
00:55:14,680 --> 00:55:18,560
Suez Canal.
Apparently 1/3 of global

902
00:55:18,560 --> 00:55:21,360
shipping passes off the coast of
Somalia.

903
00:55:21,520 --> 00:55:25,800
So it's a key, a key trade
route, you know, from Asia to

904
00:55:25,800 --> 00:55:30,640
Europe in particular, but also
for oil coming out of Iraq and

905
00:55:30,640 --> 00:55:34,760
Iran through the Suez Canal to,
you know, South America or

906
00:55:34,840 --> 00:55:37,200
wherever or the US or wherever
it might be.

907
00:55:38,800 --> 00:55:44,800
So it's very geostrategically
important and the government

908
00:55:44,800 --> 00:55:50,440
collapsed in 1991.
Somalia fractured into different

909
00:55:50,440 --> 00:55:54,320
parts essentially so that
there's a northern part called

910
00:55:54,320 --> 00:55:58,880
Somaliland, which has been
effectively self governing.

911
00:55:58,960 --> 00:56:03,040
It hasn't been internationally
recognized as an independent

912
00:56:03,040 --> 00:56:06,600
state, but it has been a
functioning democracy.

913
00:56:07,680 --> 00:56:10,280
It you know, there there
generally has been law and

914
00:56:10,280 --> 00:56:13,040
order.
The economy has done much better

915
00:56:13,040 --> 00:56:17,120
than other parts of Somalia.
Then there's another region

916
00:56:17,120 --> 00:56:21,520
called Puntland, kind of in
central Somalia, which has

917
00:56:21,840 --> 00:56:26,280
declared kind of independence.
But it's still, it's a complex

918
00:56:26,280 --> 00:56:28,400
relationship with the the
central government.

919
00:56:28,400 --> 00:56:31,600
There have been a variety of
attempts to kind of reestablish

920
00:56:31,600 --> 00:56:36,000
central governments.
But interestingly, a number of

921
00:56:36,000 --> 00:56:42,640
months ago, Taiwan recognised
Somaliland as independent in

922
00:56:42,960 --> 00:56:46,080
Israel, in Israel just
recognized it.

923
00:56:46,080 --> 00:56:49,240
So Israel is actually the first
internationally recognized

924
00:56:49,240 --> 00:56:51,920
country, wow, to recognize
Somaliland.

925
00:56:51,920 --> 00:56:54,240
So people have been asking why
is this why?

926
00:56:54,600 --> 00:56:57,840
And the Trump administration has
toyed with the, or at least

927
00:56:57,840 --> 00:57:00,800
spoken about the possibility of
of recognizing Somaliland.

928
00:57:00,800 --> 00:57:03,560
OK.
And the logic that's put forward

929
00:57:03,680 --> 00:57:08,200
is that Somaliland is a
functioning policy that we

930
00:57:08,200 --> 00:57:11,840
should support places that
function well, you know, rather

931
00:57:11,840 --> 00:57:16,840
than pouring endless, you know,
in one of his tweets when he was

932
00:57:17,280 --> 00:57:19,560
elected, the first bit, just
before his election, first time

933
00:57:19,560 --> 00:57:22,560
said all aid to Africa was
stolen, you know, so this idea

934
00:57:22,560 --> 00:57:26,040
that aid is just being wasted,
it's not having any impact.

935
00:57:26,040 --> 00:57:29,720
You're just reinforcing kind of
bad governments and so on.

936
00:57:30,120 --> 00:57:32,200
You've heard that we've heard
that storyline before too,

937
00:57:32,200 --> 00:57:33,920
right?
Yeah.

938
00:57:33,920 --> 00:57:39,000
And but other people have argued
that recognizing Somaliland

939
00:57:40,240 --> 00:57:46,400
could be strategic because it
does sit on this major trade

940
00:57:46,400 --> 00:57:48,400
route.
And if there was to be a

941
00:57:48,400 --> 00:57:53,520
conflict with China, being able
to project military power, you

942
00:57:53,520 --> 00:57:58,080
know, from there and to have
what the American military call

943
00:57:58,080 --> 00:58:01,200
a choke point, you know, where
you're able to cut off your

944
00:58:01,200 --> 00:58:06,360
adversaries critical supplies
of, of oil or or minerals or,

945
00:58:06,480 --> 00:58:09,920
you know, other things could be
advantageous.

946
00:58:09,920 --> 00:58:13,720
So there's a, a geopolitics to
this as well.

947
00:58:14,880 --> 00:58:23,240
So Somalia is, you know, there's
still, there's been a resurgence

948
00:58:23,240 --> 00:58:27,640
of ISIS in the last couple of
years, mostly so that, you know,

949
00:58:27,640 --> 00:58:32,040
that obviously was centered in
Iraq and Syria initially Islamic

950
00:58:32,040 --> 00:58:36,280
State in Syria and Iraq, that's
what ISIS, you know, stands for.

951
00:58:36,880 --> 00:58:41,160
But because it was forced out of
that region, there's now been a

952
00:58:41,560 --> 00:58:47,200
a resurgence of ISIS, which is
centered in Africa and what are.

953
00:58:47,720 --> 00:58:52,200
They what are they?
What's their mission there?

954
00:58:52,560 --> 00:58:57,880
ISIS, Yeah.
Well, it's, you know, again,

955
00:58:57,880 --> 00:59:00,600
there's debates in the in the
literature about this.

956
00:59:00,600 --> 00:59:05,440
There, there are different kind
of terrorist fundamentalist

957
00:59:05,440 --> 00:59:10,280
groups.
The argument or the consensus

958
00:59:10,280 --> 00:59:13,240
seems to be in a lot of the
literature that it's largely

959
00:59:13,240 --> 00:59:17,640
local grievances that drive the
insurgencies, you know, dis

960
00:59:17,920 --> 00:59:22,000
disaffection with poverty,
disaffection with corruption in

961
00:59:22,000 --> 00:59:25,680
governments, feeling voiceless,
you know, all of all of those

962
00:59:25,680 --> 00:59:28,520
kinds of things.
And also sometimes these groups

963
00:59:28,520 --> 00:59:32,360
recruit people who young people
who are unemployed maybe pay

964
00:59:32,360 --> 00:59:34,680
them $100 a month, which is a
lot of money.

965
00:59:35,560 --> 00:59:39,080
Al Shabaab in Somalia was doing
that, paying people about 100,

966
00:59:39,080 --> 00:59:43,080
you know, so it's a livelihood.
So there's an economic dimension

967
00:59:43,240 --> 00:59:48,440
to it as well.
But the, the, there is this kind

968
00:59:48,440 --> 00:59:51,560
of global franchise that ISIS
has.

969
00:59:51,560 --> 00:59:55,880
So you're able to access, even
if a lot of what's motivating

970
00:59:55,880 --> 01:00:00,440
your recruits locally is local
grievances, they're tapped into

971
01:00:00,640 --> 01:00:04,400
this global network where
they're able to access arms,

972
01:00:04,400 --> 01:00:09,120
resources, money, you know,
promotional materials, all of

973
01:00:09,120 --> 01:00:13,520
that kind of stuff.
And so the agenda obviously is

974
01:00:13,520 --> 01:00:21,000
to overthrow the government.
Establish Islamic law, Sharia

975
01:00:21,000 --> 01:00:24,080
law as the governing principle
of society.

976
01:00:25,160 --> 01:00:29,880
Kick Westerners and Western
influence and also what are

977
01:00:29,880 --> 01:00:34,360
perceived to be the influence of
of corrupt governments, you

978
01:00:34,360 --> 01:00:37,160
know, in Saudi Arabia or the
Gulf states.

979
01:00:37,520 --> 01:00:39,400
Get rid, get rid of foreign
influence.

980
01:00:39,640 --> 01:00:46,120
Have a kind of supposedly pure
society where it's governed by

981
01:00:46,120 --> 01:00:51,080
local people without external
interference, based on the

982
01:00:51,080 --> 01:00:55,240
principles of kind of a
fundamentalist reading of the

983
01:00:55,240 --> 01:00:58,680
Quran.
Yeah, where, you know, you can't

984
01:00:59,080 --> 01:01:02,640
really argue with that.
You can't argue with God if God

985
01:01:02,640 --> 01:01:04,720
is on your side.
You're right.

986
01:01:07,000 --> 01:01:11,240
So, so, so, so.
That's what makes fundamentalism

987
01:01:11,560 --> 01:01:14,520
very dangerous, irrespective of
whether it's free market

988
01:01:14,520 --> 01:01:18,080
fundamentalism or Islamic fund,
that there's no room for debate,

989
01:01:18,560 --> 01:01:21,640
learning, discussion,
understanding other people's

990
01:01:21,640 --> 01:01:24,880
points of view.
It's a, it's a, It's a kind of

991
01:01:24,880 --> 01:01:27,000
IS.
Somalia, a Muslim country, is

992
01:01:27,000 --> 01:01:30,000
nor is that part of Northern
Africa, Muslim primarily.

993
01:01:30,000 --> 01:01:31,160
Yes, it is.
It is.

994
01:01:31,560 --> 01:01:35,360
And that that has some
interesting effects.

995
01:01:36,920 --> 01:01:39,040
Positive.
Effects kind of sense there in

996
01:01:39,040 --> 01:01:42,040
that context.
In in what way now?

997
01:01:42,640 --> 01:01:45,280
In the sense that meaning
they're not going to a Christian

998
01:01:45,280 --> 01:01:47,480
country and trying to preach
Muslim values to a Christian

999
01:01:47,480 --> 01:01:48,080
country.
They haven't.

1000
01:01:48,080 --> 01:01:51,800
They have a audience that's
already relatively open to

1001
01:01:51,800 --> 01:01:53,760
hearing what they have to say.
OK.

1002
01:01:55,080 --> 01:02:01,320
So yeah, I mean, there's a long
tradition of religiosity.

1003
01:02:01,360 --> 01:02:04,480
Obviously it's close to West
Asia or the Middle East.

1004
01:02:05,080 --> 01:02:08,200
Yeah, there's a whole history
there.

1005
01:02:08,360 --> 01:02:13,480
But also Islam historically has
been an axis of resistance to

1006
01:02:13,480 --> 01:02:15,480
Western intrusion.
Yeah.

1007
01:02:15,480 --> 01:02:19,480
So going back to British
colonialism, General Gordon in

1008
01:02:19,480 --> 01:02:24,000
Sudan and the Mahdi, you know
this, this is something you can

1009
01:02:24,000 --> 01:02:29,280
mobilize people around against
foreign interference or

1010
01:02:29,560 --> 01:02:30,880
influence.
It's a great message.

1011
01:02:31,160 --> 01:02:34,120
It's a great I, I, I, I don't
mean to say the fundamentalist

1012
01:02:34,120 --> 01:02:36,960
part of it, but the part the
argument that, Hey, other people

1013
01:02:36,960 --> 01:02:39,560
are, you know, that don't have
necessarily your best interest

1014
01:02:39,560 --> 01:02:41,040
in mind.
And, and you're the ones that

1015
01:02:41,040 --> 01:02:43,640
are, that are fronting the bill
every time and having a hard

1016
01:02:43,640 --> 01:02:44,520
time.
And you know what?

1017
01:02:44,520 --> 01:02:47,680
Aren't you better off just
living by yourselves and doing

1018
01:02:47,680 --> 01:02:50,600
what like what Somaliland is,
you know, and just self

1019
01:02:50,600 --> 01:02:51,800
governing and making life
better?

1020
01:02:51,800 --> 01:02:55,800
Like isn't that like since I
mean, I showed my high school

1021
01:02:55,800 --> 01:02:58,920
class because I teach high
school English and I showed my

1022
01:02:58,920 --> 01:03:03,360
Class A video of the neo Nazi
recruiting, you know, video.

1023
01:03:03,840 --> 01:03:05,680
And I said, listen, a lot of
these kids are not different

1024
01:03:05,680 --> 01:03:07,920
than you guys.
A lot of these kids don't start

1025
01:03:07,920 --> 01:03:10,000
off on a very different page
than you guys.

1026
01:03:10,000 --> 01:03:14,040
The the leap they make is is,
you know, and like what we said

1027
01:03:14,040 --> 01:03:16,440
earlier, all conspiracies kind
of start with a grain of truth.

1028
01:03:16,800 --> 01:03:19,760
And and you know, if there, if
there are grievances with

1029
01:03:20,040 --> 01:03:22,480
someone else minding your
business without your

1030
01:03:22,480 --> 01:03:25,360
invitation, then it's a
legitimate grievance as far as I

1031
01:03:25,360 --> 01:03:28,560
can.
So I, I was out of talk by a

1032
01:03:28,800 --> 01:03:32,560
famous African is called
Christopher Clapham a number of

1033
01:03:32,560 --> 01:03:34,680
years ago.
And he was talking about when he

1034
01:03:34,680 --> 01:03:39,720
visited Somaliland and he said
the money dealers used to just

1035
01:03:39,720 --> 01:03:44,040
draw a piece of cloth over their
piles of dollars and EUR and

1036
01:03:44,280 --> 01:03:47,720
pounds and whatever else.
When they it was time to go to

1037
01:03:47,720 --> 01:03:50,800
prayer and nobody would touch
their money, they'd leave it out

1038
01:03:50,800 --> 01:03:53,440
on the street.
So that, you know, so very

1039
01:03:53,440 --> 01:03:55,600
secure.
Now there has been conflict in

1040
01:03:55,600 --> 01:04:00,840
Somaliland as well, but some
people argued that Islam or

1041
01:04:01,440 --> 01:04:05,920
particular types of Islam
provide a very strong basis for

1042
01:04:05,920 --> 01:04:11,520
social connection and cohesion
and a strong moral code around

1043
01:04:11,520 --> 01:04:15,160
community.
And that, you know, can, can be

1044
01:04:15,160 --> 01:04:21,400
very advantageous.
And also, if you look at HIV

1045
01:04:21,640 --> 01:04:24,080
rates in Somalia, they're very
low.

1046
01:04:24,720 --> 01:04:28,160
And that again, there there's
kind of strict mores around

1047
01:04:28,160 --> 01:04:33,520
sexuality and that has reduced
transmission rates there, you

1048
01:04:33,520 --> 01:04:37,720
know, to around 1% maybe or
less, less, less than 1%, you

1049
01:04:37,720 --> 01:04:40,480
know, as compared to some
countries in southern Africa,

1050
01:04:40,600 --> 01:04:44,000
you know, at times over a third
of the population was infected.

1051
01:04:44,440 --> 01:04:48,120
So, so there, so there there's
been benefits, but obviously it

1052
01:04:48,120 --> 01:04:54,800
depends on, you know, I'm not an
expert on religion, but a lot of

1053
01:04:54,800 --> 01:04:58,520
people argued that these kind of
insurgent movements, they're

1054
01:04:58,520 --> 01:05:01,840
fundamentally political.
They're not really religiously

1055
01:05:01,840 --> 01:05:04,600
motivated.
The religion provides a kind of

1056
01:05:04,600 --> 01:05:08,760
motivating ideology.
But fundamentally it's about

1057
01:05:09,280 --> 01:05:12,360
material conditions, political
grievances.

1058
01:05:12,640 --> 01:05:16,680
You know, there was there was a
good documentary about Somalia a

1059
01:05:16,680 --> 01:05:22,160
few months ago about ISIS in
Somalia on Sky News and Donald

1060
01:05:22,160 --> 01:05:26,400
Trump ordered drone strikes
there against ISIS.

1061
01:05:26,840 --> 01:05:30,360
Didn't doesn't get reported so
much in the Western media.

1062
01:05:30,760 --> 01:05:34,800
But one of the things that
struck me in that documentary

1063
01:05:34,960 --> 01:05:39,200
where there were children's toys
kind of burned up leftover from

1064
01:05:39,200 --> 01:05:42,080
one of these missile strikes,
you know, So again, we're.

1065
01:05:42,080 --> 01:05:45,480
Going to talk about that, do we?
Yeah, so it doesn't, but it

1066
01:05:45,560 --> 01:05:49,280
doesn't doesn't really get
reported in the same way as you

1067
01:05:49,280 --> 01:05:54,240
know, Venezuela or if, if
something happens in the UK or

1068
01:05:54,240 --> 01:05:56,160
or the US, you know.
Yeah, yeah.

1069
01:05:56,200 --> 01:05:58,480
Well, I'm sure someone makes a
phone call and says this is a

1070
01:05:58,480 --> 01:06:01,400
matter of national security.
And, you know, right now we

1071
01:06:01,400 --> 01:06:03,440
have, you know, we're trying, we
have something in the works.

1072
01:06:03,440 --> 01:06:06,120
And right now we need you just
to keep this quiet for a little

1073
01:06:06,560 --> 01:06:10,320
bit and.
Also get it like Alex Crawford

1074
01:06:10,320 --> 01:06:13,960
was the Sky reporter who went to
kind of investigators.

1075
01:06:14,240 --> 01:06:17,600
But again, you know, it's a,
it's a tough assignment I can

1076
01:06:17,600 --> 01:06:21,240
imagine to get in and talk to
people there, so.

1077
01:06:21,640 --> 01:06:23,920
I can imagine.
I can imagine, Yeah.

1078
01:06:24,000 --> 01:06:25,520
OK.
So that that provides pretty

1079
01:06:25,520 --> 01:06:28,880
good context is, is anyone else,
are there other players like

1080
01:06:28,880 --> 01:06:32,120
China that are involved in
Somalia as far as you know or is

1081
01:06:32,160 --> 01:06:34,600
it?
So Turkey has had a Bigfoot

1082
01:06:34,720 --> 01:06:39,880
there and there's a whole
regional geopolitics, you know,

1083
01:06:39,880 --> 01:06:46,080
the United Arab Emirates and
Turkey are essentially

1084
01:06:46,080 --> 01:06:49,680
supporting different sides in
Sudan's civil war.

1085
01:06:50,480 --> 01:06:53,680
So they're they're, I was
reading about this recently.

1086
01:06:53,680 --> 01:07:00,640
Some people again say that it is
a contest to have influence

1087
01:07:01,120 --> 01:07:03,680
along that very strategic trade
route.

1088
01:07:04,000 --> 01:07:06,880
And of course, there's
resources, there's gold, you

1089
01:07:06,880 --> 01:07:08,480
know, there's other things
there.

1090
01:07:08,480 --> 01:07:13,080
There are huge exports of
livestock from the Horn of

1091
01:07:13,080 --> 01:07:17,800
Africa to the Gulf states.
So it's kind of a food basket

1092
01:07:17,960 --> 01:07:23,600
for the Gulf states.
So again, power money, follow

1093
01:07:23,600 --> 01:07:27,680
the money, as you were saying.
So that that contest is is

1094
01:07:27,680 --> 01:07:30,240
ongoing.
Somalia, for the most part, has

1095
01:07:30,240 --> 01:07:31,520
been so.
OK.

1096
01:07:31,760 --> 01:07:32,400
Sorry about that.
Yeah.

1097
01:07:32,400 --> 01:07:36,200
So, so as you were saying it,
you know, follow the money,

1098
01:07:37,160 --> 01:07:41,640
Where can money be made?
Power projection, these things

1099
01:07:41,640 --> 01:07:49,480
go together.
Somalia has I think, you know,

1100
01:07:49,640 --> 01:07:55,840
fossil fuel deposits off the
coast fisheries, Somali

1101
01:07:55,840 --> 01:07:58,680
fisheries have been plundered
for decades.

1102
01:07:58,680 --> 01:08:03,560
Once the the apparently the
original kind of Somali pirates

1103
01:08:03,880 --> 01:08:08,080
were ex members of the Somali
Navy who saw foreign fishing

1104
01:08:08,080 --> 01:08:12,280
fleets come into their waters,
kind of just extract the fish

1105
01:08:13,320 --> 01:08:17,560
talk, dump toxic waste.
Western and other, you know,

1106
01:08:17,560 --> 01:08:21,840
companies dumping toxic waste
there because it was a kind of

1107
01:08:21,880 --> 01:08:25,960
ungoverned space, because it
didn't have a central government

1108
01:08:25,960 --> 01:08:29,240
for a long time that could have
kind of enforced security and

1109
01:08:29,240 --> 01:08:32,920
rule of law.
But so the but getting large

1110
01:08:32,920 --> 01:08:37,279
scale foreign investment in
Somalia has been very difficult

1111
01:08:38,000 --> 01:08:43,240
because it has been so insecure.
I did see that the the Tourism

1112
01:08:43,240 --> 01:08:48,240
ministry was looking to promote
tourism to the country.

1113
01:08:48,600 --> 01:08:53,120
The security situation did
improve quite substantially

1114
01:08:53,399 --> 01:09:00,080
there for a time, but The
Ethiopians have also been very

1115
01:09:00,080 --> 01:09:05,240
interested in Somaliland in
particular as an alternative

1116
01:09:05,240 --> 01:09:07,240
route to the sea so.
Ethiopia.

1117
01:09:07,240 --> 01:09:11,120
Ethiopia relative to Somalia.
It's next door.

1118
01:09:11,479 --> 01:09:14,319
OK.
So, so the Ethiopian government

1119
01:09:14,319 --> 01:09:20,200
actually invaded Somalia in the
2000s to depose a government

1120
01:09:20,200 --> 01:09:24,720
that came to power called the
Islamic Courts Union, which we

1121
01:09:24,720 --> 01:09:27,080
established order in the
country.

1122
01:09:27,560 --> 01:09:32,359
But it, it was a repressive
government, but The Ethiopians

1123
01:09:32,359 --> 01:09:35,319
invaded and the country kind of
plunged back into chaos.

1124
01:09:35,319 --> 01:09:38,399
So there are debates about and
actually the head of that

1125
01:09:38,399 --> 01:09:41,359
Islamic Courts union actually
ended up becoming the president

1126
01:09:41,359 --> 01:09:43,359
again with kind of Western
support.

1127
01:09:43,359 --> 01:09:49,600
So there was a lot of kind of in
Ireland, we, we, we talk about

1128
01:09:49,600 --> 01:09:51,640
kind of slips between the cup
and the lip.

1129
01:09:51,640 --> 01:09:53,720
You know, there was a lot of
politics and a lot of

1130
01:09:53,720 --> 01:09:57,160
machinations and all sorts of
different actors involved.

1131
01:09:58,360 --> 01:10:02,880
But it's generally been too
insecure to really attract a lot

1132
01:10:02,880 --> 01:10:06,280
of big investment from from
overseas.

1133
01:10:06,280 --> 01:10:09,240
But, you know, that may, may
change in the future.

1134
01:10:09,240 --> 01:10:12,040
But Somaliland has been
relatively stable.

1135
01:10:12,440 --> 01:10:17,080
And there was a deal that was
meant to be inked with Ethiopia

1136
01:10:17,080 --> 01:10:22,000
around leasing a port to The
Ethiopians so they'd have an

1137
01:10:22,000 --> 01:10:25,720
alternate route to the sea from
Djibouti that they they

1138
01:10:25,720 --> 01:10:28,720
currently rely on.
Again, there was a lot of

1139
01:10:28,720 --> 01:10:32,280
controversy about that.
Was this de facto recognizing

1140
01:10:32,480 --> 01:10:34,720
Somaliland as an independent
state?

1141
01:10:35,120 --> 01:10:38,080
You know, the African Union
doesn't recognize it, but Israel

1142
01:10:38,080 --> 01:10:41,000
recognizes it.
So, so who says, you know,

1143
01:10:41,000 --> 01:10:44,920
again, these external powers and
players should be able to make

1144
01:10:44,920 --> 01:10:49,360
decisions, you know, which
affect Africa when the the

1145
01:10:49,880 --> 01:10:53,560
continental institutions don't
recognize Somaliland as

1146
01:10:53,560 --> 01:10:56,880
independent, for example?
Yeah, yeah.

1147
01:10:56,880 --> 01:11:00,640
And I guess it's just a matter
of how many Big Brothers say

1148
01:11:01,120 --> 01:11:04,520
you're for real until everyone
says, OK, fine, you're for real,

1149
01:11:04,520 --> 01:11:08,280
whatever, you know.
And it could be for the better.

1150
01:11:08,280 --> 01:11:09,840
I don't know.
I don't know what's gonna.

1151
01:11:10,240 --> 01:11:12,320
I guess we'll have to see that
in the coming years and pay

1152
01:11:12,320 --> 01:11:14,080
attention as it plays out a
little bit.

1153
01:11:14,640 --> 01:11:18,640
I wanted to also talk about BRIC
because I saw you would write

1154
01:11:18,640 --> 01:11:20,160
about that and then I had to
look it up.

1155
01:11:20,200 --> 01:11:23,840
And then once I did, I was like,
oh, I definitely want to want to

1156
01:11:23,840 --> 01:11:26,040
dive into that a little bit.
So if you wouldn't mind.

1157
01:11:26,640 --> 01:11:33,440
Sure.
So the BRICS is a grouping of

1158
01:11:33,480 --> 01:11:37,680
mostly what are called global S
countries.

1159
01:11:37,680 --> 01:11:42,600
So Brazil, Russia, India, China
and then South Africa joined in

1160
01:11:42,600 --> 01:11:44,440
2010.
There's some.

1161
01:11:44,960 --> 01:11:49,160
Bricks now, so bricks.
And then Indonesia and Ethiopia

1162
01:11:49,160 --> 01:11:51,480
and Egypt and other countries
have joined.

1163
01:11:51,840 --> 01:11:55,760
There's also partner countries.
So it's been expanding in the

1164
01:11:55,760 --> 01:11:58,360
last couple of years pretty,
pretty substantially.

1165
01:11:58,880 --> 01:12:04,600
And the UAE is a member.
Saudi Arabia was meant to join,

1166
01:12:04,600 --> 01:12:09,080
as was Argentina, but Javier
Malay decided not to join

1167
01:12:10,160 --> 01:12:13,400
because, you know, he's pro US
rather than pro China, let's

1168
01:12:13,400 --> 01:12:16,040
say.
And again, the Saudis may be

1169
01:12:16,040 --> 01:12:20,560
thought better of joining a
grouping that was certainly

1170
01:12:20,560 --> 01:12:23,560
perceived by the Trump
administration to be anti

1171
01:12:23,560 --> 01:12:29,080
American in in orientation.
But I think BRICS really came

1172
01:12:29,080 --> 01:12:34,800
about after the global financial
crisis because it was sensed

1173
01:12:34,800 --> 01:12:39,440
that, you know, the West was
kind of in decline, its

1174
01:12:39,440 --> 01:12:43,880
influence was in decline.
There was an opportunity for

1175
01:12:44,080 --> 01:12:48,080
countries from the global S to
kind of come together and have a

1176
01:12:48,080 --> 01:12:52,240
collective voice in a way that
they hadn't really for decades.

1177
01:12:52,800 --> 01:12:55,920
And China's economy was still
growing rapidly.

1178
01:12:56,160 --> 01:13:00,160
India's economy is currently
growing, you know, very rapidly.

1179
01:13:00,520 --> 01:13:05,760
And to to they have a shared
interest in reforming the global

1180
01:13:05,760 --> 01:13:09,920
system so that it's less Western
centred and dominated and more

1181
01:13:09,920 --> 01:13:15,480
reflective of the interests of,
well, they say the majority

1182
01:13:15,480 --> 01:13:18,440
world, you know, the developing
world or global S where most of

1183
01:13:18,440 --> 01:13:19,680
the world's population.
Lives.

1184
01:13:19,680 --> 01:13:24,400
And what would that look like?
That look less capitalistic?

1185
01:13:24,400 --> 01:13:26,640
Would that look more communist?
How, how?

1186
01:13:26,640 --> 01:13:30,320
What's the vision for for?
That so part of the issue is

1187
01:13:30,440 --> 01:13:34,080
that the different countries in
the grouping are very, very

1188
01:13:34,080 --> 01:13:36,640
different.
So there's no one model that's.

1189
01:13:36,640 --> 01:13:37,840
Noticed.
Yeah.

1190
01:13:37,840 --> 01:13:43,320
So, you know, India has popular
elections, China doesn't.

1191
01:13:43,840 --> 01:13:47,440
They compete with each other.
They have border clashes, They

1192
01:13:47,440 --> 01:13:49,560
have different security
interests.

1193
01:13:49,560 --> 01:13:52,160
So they're they're they
cooperate on some things and

1194
01:13:52,160 --> 01:13:56,480
they compete on others.
So there's no real one model.

1195
01:13:56,480 --> 01:14:04,240
But the way I read it, you know,
the apparently one large city in

1196
01:14:04,240 --> 01:14:10,840
China's economic output is the
same size as the entire economy

1197
01:14:10,840 --> 01:14:14,160
of South Africa.
So you you kind of see who the

1198
01:14:14,160 --> 01:14:19,640
big dog is in Brexit, China.
And China economically,

1199
01:14:19,720 --> 01:14:24,000
politically, you know, it has a
permanent seat like Russia on

1200
01:14:24,000 --> 01:14:26,360
the UN Security Council.
It has all these power

1201
01:14:26,360 --> 01:14:32,120
resources.
And this is a way of trying to

1202
01:14:32,320 --> 01:14:40,120
gather in other countries to
support China as it has risen in

1203
01:14:40,120 --> 01:14:42,120
importance economically and
politically.

1204
01:14:42,600 --> 01:14:47,000
So but but other countries have
and people in those countries

1205
01:14:47,680 --> 01:14:49,680
have their own visions and
interests.

1206
01:14:49,960 --> 01:14:55,240
But the idea that globalization
has been too Western dominated

1207
01:14:55,240 --> 01:14:58,960
that the institutions of global
governance, the United Nations,

1208
01:14:58,960 --> 01:15:02,040
you know, headquartered in New
York, the World Bank, the

1209
01:15:02,040 --> 01:15:05,400
International Monetary Fund
headquartered in Washington, DC,

1210
01:15:05,680 --> 01:15:08,000
these have been too Western
dominated.

1211
01:15:08,480 --> 01:15:13,360
And there's a need both to
reform those institutions and to

1212
01:15:13,360 --> 01:15:16,400
develop new institutions.
So kind of twin track strategy,

1213
01:15:16,400 --> 01:15:20,320
develop new institutions which
will better serve the interests

1214
01:15:20,320 --> 01:15:22,600
of the, the participant
countries.

1215
01:15:23,240 --> 01:15:26,120
And then there are concrete
initiatives.

1216
01:15:26,120 --> 01:15:29,040
I don't know if you saw a few
months ago, Donald Trump said

1217
01:15:29,040 --> 01:15:33,720
that if the BRICS tried to move
away from using the dollar for

1218
01:15:33,720 --> 01:15:38,400
trade, he would impose massive
tariffs on them if they tried to

1219
01:15:38,400 --> 01:15:40,320
do that.
But there is an interest in de

1220
01:15:40,320 --> 01:15:44,480
dollarisation.
So because the US dollar is

1221
01:15:44,520 --> 01:15:47,920
effectively the world's reserve
currency, that gives an immense

1222
01:15:47,920 --> 01:15:50,520
amount of power to the United
States.

1223
01:15:50,520 --> 01:15:56,880
Because if you transact your oil
purchases in dollars or anything

1224
01:15:56,880 --> 01:16:01,680
else, you have to have a bank in
the USA, Correspondent Bank, who

1225
01:16:01,680 --> 01:16:05,240
is going to kind of oversee that
transaction because it's in U.S.

1226
01:16:05,240 --> 01:16:08,320
dollars.
And that means the US can

1227
01:16:08,320 --> 01:16:13,480
sanction banks, companies around
the world and stop them using

1228
01:16:13,960 --> 01:16:16,440
U.S. dollars, cut them off from
the US banking system.

1229
01:16:16,440 --> 01:16:20,600
They even sanction individuals
like Francesca Albanese, the the

1230
01:16:20,600 --> 01:16:26,840
UN special rapporteur, for
trying to remember what her

1231
01:16:26,840 --> 01:16:30,320
exact title is.
But it's Palestine, I think, so

1232
01:16:30,720 --> 01:16:33,880
they sanctioned so she could.
Sanctioned things as if she

1233
01:16:33,880 --> 01:16:36,080
couldn't get access to American
dollars.

1234
01:16:36,520 --> 01:16:40,480
No, she can't have a bank
account because if her Italian

1235
01:16:40,480 --> 01:16:43,840
bank, I think she's Italian, if
her Italian bank allowed her to

1236
01:16:43,840 --> 01:16:47,400
have a bank account, then they
wouldn't be able to engage in

1237
01:16:47,400 --> 01:16:50,760
any dollar transactions or have
a corresponding bank.

1238
01:16:50,760 --> 01:16:53,640
In the United States, they've
sanctioned International

1239
01:16:53,640 --> 01:16:57,480
Criminal Court judges, so you
can sanction.

1240
01:16:57,480 --> 01:17:01,040
So there's there's a book called
Underground Empire which talks

1241
01:17:01,040 --> 01:17:03,600
about this.
So there's about 3000.

1242
01:17:03,600 --> 01:17:08,680
I've got to talk about it during
the summer in the US there's

1243
01:17:08,680 --> 01:17:16,160
over 3000 prescribed entities,
they call them now where the US

1244
01:17:16,160 --> 01:17:19,200
has sanctioned companies or
individuals or networks or

1245
01:17:19,200 --> 01:17:24,280
whatever.
And so this this gives the US

1246
01:17:24,280 --> 01:17:27,160
this massive leverage.
And some people have argued that

1247
01:17:27,160 --> 01:17:32,320
the because Venezuela was
beginning to sell oil in the

1248
01:17:32,320 --> 01:17:37,000
Chinese currency, this was one
of the motivations for, for the,

1249
01:17:37,280 --> 01:17:42,840
the decapitation operation in
Venezuela, that to preserve, to

1250
01:17:42,840 --> 01:17:46,720
preserve the primacy of the US
dollar in international trade

1251
01:17:46,720 --> 01:17:49,560
and finance.
You know, Saddam Hussein started

1252
01:17:49,560 --> 01:17:57,600
selling oil in euros.
Moammar Moammar Gaddafi had a

1253
01:17:57,600 --> 01:18:03,280
plan to have a gold backed gold
dinar currency that oil would be

1254
01:18:03,280 --> 01:18:05,920
sold in.
And again, we know what happened

1255
01:18:05,920 --> 01:18:09,960
to him.
So so yeah.

1256
01:18:09,960 --> 01:18:14,560
So there's, you know, the other
thing that that the fact that

1257
01:18:14,720 --> 01:18:19,720
there's such demand for American
dollars does in the world in

1258
01:18:19,720 --> 01:18:25,240
order to facilitate trade and
investment is that it means the

1259
01:18:25,280 --> 01:18:30,520
US can print money and buy stuff
effectively for free from other

1260
01:18:30,520 --> 01:18:33,400
countries without having to work
for it.

1261
01:18:33,880 --> 01:18:35,320
We.
We just pay later.

1262
01:18:37,440 --> 01:18:41,240
There's downs, you're right,
there's all sorts of downsides

1263
01:18:41,600 --> 01:18:47,480
to this, but but you can print
dollars and buy things from

1264
01:18:47,480 --> 01:18:49,560
Japan or buy things from
Ireland.

1265
01:18:50,520 --> 01:18:54,000
But obviously trade, there's all
sorts of problems with it in

1266
01:18:54,040 --> 01:18:56,720
terms of trade deficits.
It gives rise to other

1267
01:18:56,720 --> 01:18:59,640
dysfunctions as well.
Yeah, yeah, I did a great

1268
01:18:59,640 --> 01:19:03,160
episode with a gentleman named.
He's a Professor Lawrence Levy.

1269
01:19:03,280 --> 01:19:04,360
Lawrence.
No, White.

1270
01:19:04,360 --> 01:19:05,360
Lawrence White.
I'm sorry.

1271
01:19:05,680 --> 01:19:07,600
And he?
Yeah.

1272
01:19:08,080 --> 01:19:09,520
Oh, yeah.
And he, he was wonderful.

1273
01:19:09,520 --> 01:19:11,560
And he and I and he and I talked
because I don't understand

1274
01:19:11,560 --> 01:19:14,560
anything about the gold standard
or when we got off it or what

1275
01:19:14,560 --> 01:19:17,160
the point of it was.
And so he and I talked through a

1276
01:19:17,160 --> 01:19:19,160
lot of this stuff for like an
hour and a half and that was

1277
01:19:19,200 --> 01:19:23,800
really, really wonderful.
But yeah, I mean that that was.

1278
01:19:24,480 --> 01:19:26,840
And you're just going to get the
same.

1279
01:19:26,840 --> 01:19:34,080
I mean, the, The thing is, you
can make the same points, but

1280
01:19:34,080 --> 01:19:37,480
they don't, you know, to the, to
two different people, but they

1281
01:19:37,480 --> 01:19:42,360
won't see it the same way.
And that's just what it is, you

1282
01:19:42,360 --> 01:19:44,120
know.
And so whether it's a good idea

1283
01:19:44,120 --> 01:19:46,480
or not, I think that people
could always convince themselves

1284
01:19:46,480 --> 01:19:47,800
one way.
And by the way, you always can.

1285
01:19:47,800 --> 01:19:49,960
I mean, there's always studies
for everything you want to, you

1286
01:19:49,960 --> 01:19:52,040
want to say, and there's always
something to back up everything

1287
01:19:52,040 --> 01:19:55,680
you want to, you want to point
out, but you know, whether or

1288
01:19:55,680 --> 01:19:58,200
not it's a good idea.
I think that that has been, I

1289
01:19:58,200 --> 01:20:02,000
think that free, that free will
and that that willingness to

1290
01:20:02,000 --> 01:20:06,360
just spend and print money.
Has arguably is the source is,

1291
01:20:06,360 --> 01:20:09,760
is a, a big part of the reason
why the economy in America is

1292
01:20:09,760 --> 01:20:13,280
the way it is today.
And you know, and, and I, and I

1293
01:20:13,280 --> 01:20:15,400
give this example that the
America, the homeland, the

1294
01:20:15,400 --> 01:20:18,880
taxpayers are the life source of
this empire.

1295
01:20:18,880 --> 01:20:21,840
And it's the heartbeat of the,
of the, of the arms and the

1296
01:20:21,840 --> 01:20:23,800
fingers and the, and the limbs
that are spreading out around

1297
01:20:23,800 --> 01:20:25,440
the world.
But you got to make sure that

1298
01:20:25,440 --> 01:20:27,920
your heart's healthy.
And I mean, Americans of all

1299
01:20:27,960 --> 01:20:30,920
people should, should, should
understand the, the dangers of,

1300
01:20:31,280 --> 01:20:34,200
of heart condition.
And so, you know, I think that

1301
01:20:34,360 --> 01:20:36,640
if you want to say that this was
an experiment that you could try

1302
01:20:36,640 --> 01:20:39,960
for a little while for 50,
sixty, 7080 years, great.

1303
01:20:39,960 --> 01:20:43,040
But like, how, you know, how
much longer is that?

1304
01:20:43,040 --> 01:20:44,960
Are we going to, are we going to
try to do that for?

1305
01:20:45,240 --> 01:20:50,040
So I've been reading a little
bit about this as well that, you

1306
01:20:50,040 --> 01:20:54,120
know, the Trump administration
is very keen on stable coins and

1307
01:20:54,120 --> 01:20:59,480
cryptocurrency.
And so is this a way, is this a

1308
01:20:59,920 --> 01:21:05,560
kind of vector of competition of
the future which doesn't have

1309
01:21:05,560 --> 01:21:09,680
maybe some of the disadvantages
of dollar primacy, right.

1310
01:21:10,520 --> 01:21:13,480
And you know, the Chinese
already have the Digital 1.

1311
01:21:14,440 --> 01:21:17,480
So will this be a way of
competing with China in that

1312
01:21:17,480 --> 01:21:19,480
space as well?
Yeah.

1313
01:21:19,480 --> 01:21:22,840
And then the potential
downstream consequences is that

1314
01:21:22,840 --> 01:21:26,240
social currency that, that we're
all afraid of that I think we

1315
01:21:26,240 --> 01:21:29,640
saw a little bit of, I mean, if
the if the individual in Italy

1316
01:21:29,960 --> 01:21:32,760
got debanked for saying
something like free Palestine or

1317
01:21:32,760 --> 01:21:35,880
something like that.
I mean, you know, what's stopped

1318
01:21:35,880 --> 01:21:38,240
that from happening on a mass
level throughout the States one

1319
01:21:38,240 --> 01:21:40,440
way or the other?
And I always like to make this,

1320
01:21:40,800 --> 01:21:44,480
this argument, you know, I, I
think that when you're in power,

1321
01:21:44,480 --> 01:21:48,040
you lose, you really lose sight
and vision as to what, you know,

1322
01:21:48,040 --> 01:21:49,840
real values are.
And you kind of want to maintain

1323
01:21:49,840 --> 01:21:52,720
that power.
And, but you, you're opening the

1324
01:21:52,720 --> 01:21:56,160
door for people to do the exact
same thing to you that, you

1325
01:21:56,160 --> 01:21:59,480
know, as soon as the pendulum
swings back and the pendulum

1326
01:21:59,480 --> 01:22:03,480
always swings back.
And it's so funny because I, I

1327
01:22:03,480 --> 01:22:06,080
just turned 30 recently and I'm
having a little bit of a heart

1328
01:22:06,080 --> 01:22:11,080
attack about it.
And don't worry. 57.

1329
01:22:12,240 --> 01:22:15,360
One thing that I was thinking
about was the fact that I'm

1330
01:22:15,360 --> 01:22:19,400
thinking these things that I
would have absolutely ignored or

1331
01:22:19,400 --> 01:22:21,600
blown off 10 years ago.
And that's how I know that I'm

1332
01:22:21,600 --> 01:22:24,760
an adult and you know, when I'm
giving my, when I'm giving my

1333
01:22:24,760 --> 01:22:27,720
siblings or my students advice
that.

1334
01:22:28,000 --> 01:22:30,920
And I know as I'm saying it, if
I were them, I would not hear a

1335
01:22:30,920 --> 01:22:32,440
word of this.
But like, that's what that's

1336
01:22:32,440 --> 01:22:34,440
what it means to be young.
That's what the human condition

1337
01:22:34,440 --> 01:22:36,760
is.
Is this this endless cycle of

1338
01:22:36,760 --> 01:22:41,200
just learning and trying and
self correction and mistakes and

1339
01:22:41,200 --> 01:22:43,480
back and forth but.
Be very boring otherwise,

1340
01:22:43,480 --> 01:22:45,080
wouldn't it?
Yeah, yeah.

1341
01:22:45,080 --> 01:22:46,640
But you know, hopefully that
that's the point of these

1342
01:22:46,640 --> 01:22:48,880
conversations.
And you know, I mean, as a as a

1343
01:22:49,120 --> 01:22:52,200
young parent and I understand my
parents more now.

1344
01:22:53,000 --> 01:22:57,040
You, you, you want to teach your
kid to avoid the mistakes before

1345
01:22:57,040 --> 01:22:59,800
they have to actually experience
and pay the repercussions

1346
01:22:59,800 --> 01:23:01,760
themselves.
And there's different degrees to

1347
01:23:01,760 --> 01:23:04,080
which that I think is healthy or
not healthy.

1348
01:23:04,480 --> 01:23:06,680
But I think there's a lot of
things in life that we could

1349
01:23:06,680 --> 01:23:09,480
just cut out that, you know, we
don't have to experience all

1350
01:23:09,480 --> 01:23:12,200
that unnecessary, all the
unnecessary pain.

1351
01:23:12,200 --> 01:23:14,800
If you just listen to history,
you just listen to these kind of

1352
01:23:14,800 --> 01:23:16,360
conversations going back and
forth.

1353
01:23:18,160 --> 01:23:22,200
Yeah, I suppose it'd be nice if
we could do that, but we don't

1354
01:23:22,200 --> 01:23:25,960
seem to be very good at it.
Yeah, yeah, yeah.

1355
01:23:25,960 --> 01:23:28,800
Have you watched this this new
Apple TV show Pluribus?

1356
01:23:29,480 --> 01:23:31,520
I haven't.
Do you know the premise of it?

1357
01:23:31,520 --> 01:23:33,200
It's really fascinating.
I don't know.

1358
01:23:33,600 --> 01:23:38,640
The premise is that there's a
virus that escapes a lab and

1359
01:23:38,680 --> 01:23:41,920
it's not a bad virus.
It's a virus that everyone that

1360
01:23:41,920 --> 01:23:46,240
is infected by it shares one
conscious mind, 1 consciousness

1361
01:23:46,800 --> 01:23:50,760
and, and there's only 10 people
in the world that have or that

1362
01:23:50,760 --> 01:23:55,840
are immune to this virus.
And everyone is completely

1363
01:23:55,840 --> 01:23:57,440
benevolent.
They're all kind.

1364
01:23:57,440 --> 01:24:00,600
Because a lot of the things that
make that the worst of human

1365
01:24:00,600 --> 01:24:03,840
traits come from individuality.
They come from the need for the

1366
01:24:03,840 --> 01:24:06,520
best partner or the most money
or the most security or whatever

1367
01:24:06,520 --> 01:24:07,920
it is.
But if you don't have that

1368
01:24:07,920 --> 01:24:09,840
concern, then everyone just
good.

1369
01:24:09,840 --> 01:24:13,040
And so the show really wrestles
with the question of what, you

1370
01:24:13,040 --> 01:24:14,720
know, what's it mean to be a
human?

1371
01:24:14,720 --> 01:24:16,720
Is it about individuality?
Is it collective?

1372
01:24:16,720 --> 01:24:19,480
Is it, you know, what's it,
what's it really mean to be

1373
01:24:19,480 --> 01:24:21,920
happy or not?
And I'm only a couple of

1374
01:24:21,920 --> 01:24:24,880
episodes in, but it's really.
Really good, I'll check.

1375
01:24:25,120 --> 01:24:28,880
Yeah, provoking.
I really, I, we're just about up

1376
01:24:28,920 --> 01:24:31,600
on time.
I had really such a blast.

1377
01:24:31,840 --> 01:24:35,360
This was so educational.
I would love to do this again at

1378
01:24:35,360 --> 01:24:37,920
some point in the coming year
because I think there's a lot

1379
01:24:37,920 --> 01:24:41,760
that, especially as news is
unfolding that we could take to

1380
01:24:41,840 --> 01:24:44,080
kind of going back and forth and
talking about the context of

1381
01:24:44,080 --> 01:24:46,880
what's going on.
But thank you so much for the

1382
01:24:46,880 --> 01:24:48,200
time.
Thank you for getting back.

1383
01:24:48,280 --> 01:24:51,320
I reached out and I'm really
this is This is so much fun.

1384
01:24:51,600 --> 01:24:54,120
Great.
Great to talk to you and I hope

1385
01:24:54,120 --> 01:24:56,760
2026 is good for you and your
family.

1386
01:24:57,520 --> 01:24:58,360
Same.
Same to you.

1387
01:24:58,360 --> 01:25:00,080
Well, I hope to be in touch.
All the best, OK?

1388
01:25:00,400 --> 01:25:00,600
Bye.